Bizarro Symmetry

The largest victory margin in a championship game since (UNC rival) Duke beat (Michigan State rival) Michigan by 20 in 1992.

Man, I hate the ACC.

UPDATE: Since that '92 Duke-Michigan game, the ACC is 5-0 against the Big Ten in title games.

1992 - Duke over Michigan
1993 - UNC over Michigan
2002 - Maryland over Indiana
2005 - UNC over Illinois
2009 - UNC over Michigan State

Indiana's win over UNC in 1981 is the only other title game featuring the two conferences.

Get a brain!

Allow me to take advantage of the under-4 timeout to comment on the stupidity of Bill Self winning two Coach of the Year awards, first the AP and then CBS/Chevrolet's. (As if anything that an American car company puts its name on isn't discredited enough.) I'll say it again:

It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.

Self isn't even the Big 12 Coach of the Year, much less the national COY. Roy Williams benefitted from this myopia in 2006, the idiocy that rewards a coach not for actual coaching, but for how much talent he has after he wins a national championship. It's nuts and makes me wonder if the people who decide these things can focus on more than 3 or 4 schools for a two-year stretch at a time.

A long night in Memphis and Lexington

Rumors swirling today about whether John Calipari will leave Memphis to take the head job at Kentucky. Despite all the "reports" (many of which are just reporting other reports), this does not appear to be a done deal. For what it's worth, the most recent chatter is that Memphis boosters are trying to put together a last-minute package that will keep Calipari in Memphis.

I have been saying all day long that until it is officially announced by Kentucky, I will continue to believe that this is an effort by Calipari to re-negotiate a huge deal in Memphis. Srinivas can speak to this better than I can, but if that's the case, it would not be the first time for Calipari.

I don't have much to add to this, but I will say that based on my casual surfing, I think that people are understimating the appeal of the Memphis job, both in the abstract and in Calipari's case, specifically. I don't think folks understand the importance of the Memphis basketball team to the city of Memphis, and the resources that the university is willing to commit to the program. After all, Calipari is already the second highest-paid coach in the country, and unlike the highest-paid coach (Billy Donovan), the magnitude of his salary isn't just a function of the largesse generated by a dominant football team.

In any event, it appears we'll find out tomorrow. In the meantime, there are a lot of folks in Kentucky and Memphis who aren't going to sleep well tonight.

Grab some popcorn

Billy Gillispie is out at UK. Kick back, put your feet up, and head over to Rupp Rafters to revel in the chaos.

UPDATE: A TV station in Orlando is reporting that Billy Donovan will be leaving Florida to take the UK job. That'll satisfy Kentucky's insane fan base, but I'm not sweating Billy D at all.

UPDATE 2: Donovan is pushing back on the rumors a bit, releasing a statement that says, "In response to the rumors circulating about my interest in other jobs, I wanted to address this as quickly as possible. I am committed to the University of Florida and look forward to continuing to build our program here." That strikes me as a non-denial denial.

Thursday Recap

Four games, four notes:

1. Boy, was Pitt lucky to win tonight. A disjointed, sloppy, and sluggish effort from the Panthers. From Dejuan Blair's poor finishing to Sam Young's comically bad shot selection to the entire team's defensive disorganization, it was not a pretty sight. Even Levance Fields' climactic three-pointer was one of those "no no no no no no yes!" plays. Jamie Dixon will be thanking his lucky stars that Xavier struggled to finish around the rim and shot surprisingly poorly tonight.
   


2. We said yesterday that the key factors in the Nova-Duke game would be the Wildcats' guards keeping their composure against Duke's ball pressure defense, and Duke's three-point shooting. Well Villanova turned it over on just 16% of its possessions (Duke typically forces turnovers on about 23% of possessions), and Duke shot an abominable 5-for-27 from beyond the arc. End result: 23-point Villanova blowout and much rejoicing throughout the land.


3. I didn't see the Memphis-Missouri game, but every replay that CBS showed me seemed to involve JT Tiller scoring on a layup off of a curl cut into the lane. Easy, peasy, japeneezy. So much for Memphis' vaunted defense, which allowed a remarkable 1.25 points per possession. Missouri will be looking to make its first Final Four on Saturday, but perhaps the more important battle for them will be finding a way to keep Mike Anderson in Columbia after the season is over. As for the inevitable speculation of Calipari to Kentucky, I can't see either party to that potential transaction being particularly interested in it, for a variety of reasons. Sorry, delusional UK fans, it looks it'll be Travis Ford for you. That's what you get for running one of the game's best coaches out of town.


4. I also missed the UConn-Purdue game, but as we suggested yesterday, without a hot shooting night, Purdue wasn't going to win this game. And 6-for-23 from 3 is absolutely frigid. The Boilers could never get the offense going this year, and despite returning much of their top talent next year, if they don't find a way to score, it's going to be a similar story.
   

UPDATE: Just to balance out the less than unbiased appraisal of Memphis' season below, I don't think they did anything that anyone shouldn't have expected in preseason. They may have been underrated by the polls at the time, but a so-so non-conference performance, a sweep through the anemic CUSA, and a sweet 16 exit are not terribly surprising results for this team. This year's award for overachieving goes to the Tigers who won tonight's game. It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.

Mitch Barnhart, Our Lord and Savior

I know they take their basketball seriously in Kentucky, but I think the reporter who wrote this ESPN wire services story after UK's season ended in the NIT has missed the mark:

Asked about how he feels about all the judgment he's facing after posing a 40-27 record in two seasons at Kentucky, Gillispie said: "There's only one judgment I'll ever be concerned about, and I hope I pass that judgment. That's the only one I'll ever be concerned about, and I'm really proud that that's the only judgment that will ever have a real effect on me, and I hope I pass that one with flying colors."

Gillispie declined to answer when asked whose judgment he was referring to, saying it was obvious, apparently referring to Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart.

Uh, something tells me Gillispie is talking about something more eternal than his job.

Sweet Sixteen Preview: East and West

It's time to get back in the saddle.

After a few days off to catch a breath and reflect on the chalkfest that was the first two rounds of this year's Tournament, it's time to look forward to the orgy of high-level hoops that is coming our way over the next 96 hours. While I'm as disappointed about the lack of Cinderellas in this year's Sweet 16 (no, Arizona doesn't count), the advancement of the consensus top teams in the country should give us some terrific matchups this weekend. Let's preview what's on tap Thursday night.

Pittsburgh vs. Xavier - The big story off the court is Sean Miller leading Xavier against his his alma mater. (Trivia note: Miller was the guy who passed the ball to Jerome Lane for the backboard-breaking dunk that caused Bill Raftery to utter the now-famous words for the first time: "Send it in, Jerome!") And Miller may find himself back at Pitt if Arizona can manage to lure Jamie Dixon away.

Human interest aside, this should be an interesting matchup of two teams that play a similar defensive style. Both teams employ variants of the packline defense, which is pretty much what it sounds like - packing all your off-ball defenders within an imaginary line inside the arc. The goal is to prevent advancement of the ball towards the basket rather than to pressure the ball. As a result, both teams are much better at defending inside and rebounding the ball than they are at defending the three-point shot and generating turnovers. Xavier, though, is in a better position to take advantage of Pitt than vice versa, because the Musketeers are a better 3-point shooting team.

Pitt's offensive strength - inside - runs right into Xavier's packline. But it's not enough to say that Xavier generally defends well inside. Generalities often fall by the wayside when you're talking about exceptional cases, and Dejuan Blair is an exceptional case. Let's not forget his utter abuse of Hasheem Thabeet, who is a one-man packline defense all by himself. And when Blair isn't clicking, it seems that either Levance Fields and the cadre of Pitt's reserve guards, or Sam Young, are.

I suspect Pitt will come out on top, but the only sure thing is that this game is going to be a physical slugfest.

UConn vs. Purdue - Despite being an IU fan, I'm rooting for Purdue to represent the Big Ten well. But this is going to be a tough one.

Purdue is a great defensive team, and it wouldn't surprise me if they found a way to slow down UConn's multi-pronged offensive attack. But Purdue has struggled to score points all year, and going up against the Thabeet-led Huskies defense is not going to make things any easier. Down the stretch against Washington, the Boilers relied heavily on attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. That's just not going to work against UConn, which has one of the most efficient and least foul-prone interior defenses in the country. The shots will have to fall for the Boilers, and that means Hummel, Grant, and Moore will have to get hot. Jajuan Johnson has definitely improved this year, but it's asking a lot for him to get it done against Thabeet.

Let me also take this opportunity to say a word or two about AJ Price. He was, as Srinivas mentioned below, outstanding this past weekend. But frankly, he's been that way all year. Price has a certain quality that is ideal for a point guard, a quality that Levance Fields shares to an extent. That is, he manages to quietly run the offense and set up his teammates for large stretches of the game, and then suddenly, when the team most needs it, he will start lighting it up from 3, attacking the basket to great effect, and getting to the free throw line. He has great poise and just doesn't get rattled. For all the hype Thabeet gets, Price is undoubtedly the most valuable players on this team.

Duke vs. Villanova - This is probably the Sweet 16 game that I am most looking forward to.

I think Villanova has a real shot to knock off the March's most hated college basketball team. It starts with a very balanced offensive attack. Their win over UCLA featured six players in double digits. They have a lot of guards who can both attack the basket and finish or step back and hit the 3. And Dante Cunningham has emerged as well-balanced offensive threat in his own right, able to score inside through sheer grit, but also highly effective with a mid-range jumper.

The biggest question for this game is how they will handle Duke's ball pressure and denial defense. In theory, they've got the quick, athletic guards that you need to drive right past the pressure and to the hoop. But the Cats don't always play smart, and they can be turnover prone. They got hammered by West Virginia, who plays a similar defensive style, by 20-plus points. If they keep their calm and rely on their quickness, they will be able to exploit the driving lanes created by Duke's defense and finish or pass for open shots. If they can do that and take advantage of Duke's poor defensive rebounding, they will put up a lot of points.

The second biggest question for this game is how Duke will shoot the ball from deep. On average, Villanova's opponents take a remarkable 41% of their shots from beyond the arc. Don't believe me? If you have any doubt about Villanova's vulnerability to the long-range shot, go watch the first 30 minutes of their game against American. Duke has been so-so shooting the ball this year. If they can knock down the 3 and take advantage of Villanova's propensity to foul, they'll put up a lot of points themselves.

So that's it. Villanova's poise and intelligence against the pressure defense (and to a lesser extent, offensive rebounding) and Duke's three-point shooting (and to a lesser extent, ability to get to the free throw line). How those factors play out will tell the story.

Memphis vs. Missouri - I heard a rumor that they're scrapping the pre-game national anthem for a very special appearance from Quin Snyder, who will be "Eye of the Tiger" at center court in only the way he can. (If you know, you know. If you don't, find out. Trust me, you won't regret it.)

This will be an interesting stylistic matchup. The way Memphis has been playing defense, it'll be hard for Missouri to get much going out of the halfcourt offense. Which means they'll be more dependent on generating offense off of turnovers than usual. Which brings us to the most important factor in this game: Can Memphis handle the heat of Missouri's "40 minutes of hell" defense?

"40 minutes of hell," a term first coined by Mike Anderson's mentor, Nolan Richardson, when he implemented the full-court pressing style at Arkansas, is actually a bit overstaed for this Missouri team. They are more selective with the full-court pressure than, say, Clemson. But that's not to say that it's not a critical component of what they do. Their defensive success depends significantly on generating turnovers. The bottom line is if Memphis' guards - not just freshman Tyreke Evans, but senior Antonio Anderson and others - can handle it, they should get some easy buckets breaking the press and win comfortably. If they can't, and Missouri is able to generate turnovers, it could be a frustrating night for some folks around here.

Scandal in Storrs

The big news of the day is not related to what's going to happen on the court the next 4 days. It's about what's been happening on the recruiting trail and in the back rooms of UConn's men's basketball offices.

As part of their commendable effort to investigate the relationships between sports agents and college basketball programs, Dan Wetzel and Adrian Wojnarowski have conducted a thorough investigation of UConn's recruitment of Nate Miles and are reporting that it was fraught with violations of NCAA rules. Unless they are simply fabricating records, they seem to have nailed UConn for, at a minimum, excessive phone calls. The bigger issue they identify, though, is UConn's relationship with a former team manager named Josh Nochimson. Nochimson, it appears, is one of many agents-slash-business-managers-slash-parasites who are polluting the current youth and college basketball landscape. And it appears that the UConn coaching staff was in bed with him, which, because he was effectively a representative of the program and paying for this and that for Nate Miles, is not just an ethical problem, it's a major rules violation.

As an Indiana fan who has had to put up with the fallout of Kelvin Sampson's Phonegate, someone who generally finds Jim Calhoun dislikable, and someone who has heard rumors of UConn's running a dirty program, I hope the NCAA comes down hard on the Huskies.

Wetzel and Wojnarowski are doing good, important work, and I hope they keep up with it. One of the frustrating things about college basketball recruiting is that everyone knows who's cheating, but no one will say. It's about time the major college hoops media stopped trying to be every coach's friend so they could get access and started acting like journalists.

Here is the piece re: the unholy nexus between college hoops, AAU programs, and agents that W&W published a few weeks ago. Both this and the UConn article are worthy reads.

TGIF, Late Night Edition

A wild and crazy finish to the first round on Friday night, featuring two virtual buzzer beaters in overtime games and one phenomenal upset. Let's get right to it, in reverse order of finish:

• Ohio State v. Siena - Siena PG Ronald Moore redeemed himself after a mediocre game by hitting a huge three at the end of overtime to tie the contest at 65. And then he did it AGAIN to win the game in double overtime. Incredible. Insane. Mad. Until the overtime periods, this was the most poorly-played game we've seen so far. Moore and PG Hill spent most of the game in a competition to see who could undermine their team's offensive efforts the most. But what a finish.


• Florida State v. Wisconsin - It wasn't all bad news for the Big Ten as Wisconsin came back top top FSU with the help two incredible shots. First, a 30-foot three-pointer from Jason Bohannon with the shot clock expiring and a minute to play gave them a 2-pt lead. Toney Douglas would hit two free throws to take it to overtime. But down a point with the clock winding down in overtime, Trevon Hughes spun his way through the lane and finished with a ridiculous circus shot (and 1!) with 2 seconds left to win it. The Big Ten is now 2-0 against the ACC, which has just 3 teams left in the tournament. Maybe the sports media will finally take notice and . . . UNC and Duke play tomorrow, BABY! The ACC, yeah!!
  


• Wake Forest v. Cleveland State - The biggest upset of the first round, and it wasn't close at the start, the finish, or anywhere in between. The Vikings dominated, going up 9-0 early and leading by no less than 7 points the rest of the way. A terrific offensive performance, where in addition to getting buckets around the basket, they got some uncharacteristically good three-point shooting. And it was New Jersey's own Cedric Jackson who led the way with 19 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals. Most importantly, it means we get to post more pictures of Gary Waters.
  

Philly, Huggins, ETSU, and the SEC's Last Stand

Some random thoughts after almost two days of nonstop action:

• We were lucky to get a great night of basketball last night in Philly. A jam-packed arena full of Villanova fans, with the exception of a smaller, but even more vocal group of American fans (fans of the team, not the country ... maybe both). Then a barn-burner in the nightcap with Eric Maynor just missing the chance to write his name into NCAA history for the second time. Once again, we managed to make it down to the 9th row, this time behind the VCU bench. After the game, we huddled near the players' tunnel to slap hands with the Rams and applaud their efforts. Most of the players welcomed the attention, but Maynor was quite down, walking ruefully with his head down back to the locker room. We gave him a literal pat on the back, but I don't think it did much to lift him from his own personal agony of defeat.


• The best team to lose so far is West Virginia. Relatively speaking, Dayton was a bad stylistic matchup for them, but they're too good a team to lose this game. This one's on Bob Huggins. Dayton got whatever they wanted inside the paint and around the rim, but they don't shoot very well. Yet West Virginia never really switched out of its perimeter-pressure defense. This is why every coach, no matter how much he loves man-to-man defense, needs to teach his team how to play at least a basic zone.


• East Tennessee State did not deserve to be saddled with a 16 seed, and they showed it. Pitt didn't really play terribly; ETSU just played really well. It's a shame that they didn't get a shot at, say, a 3 seed. They could've found themselves in the second round.


• Much to my chagrin, LSU has kept the SEC alive. Now I'm faced with the unenviable dilemna of choosing between my desire to see the SEC put out of its misery and my desire to see UNC booted in the second round. I pick the latter. Let's go Tigers!

Midday Madness Notes

First, two words: Roburt Sallie. Wow.

Second, the big news here in Philly (where we've managed to finagle ourselves into the 9th row) is that Jim Calhoun was taken to the hospital and is not here for the UConn game. Perhaps he got heat stroke from watching A&M's shooting in the first game. (Thanks, I'll be here all week.) Seriously, we hope the old guy is okay.

Live from Philadelphia

The March is in the Wachovia Center awaiting the official start of the greatest four days of the year. In a sure sign that the Madness has begun, they are pumping Aha's 80s hit, Take on Me, through the arena sound system as the BYU and A&M players warm up.

Armed with a blackberry, we'll be posting periodically throughout the day.

South Region: First Round Preview (and Picks)

1-UNC*
16-Radford

Sadly, Big Art Parakhouski’s run will be coming to an end.

8-LSU
9-Butler*

This blog is nothing if not committed to the proposition that the SEC sucks. But this is a tough game to call. Butler is a fine team, and what Brad Stevens has done with such a youthful squad is incredibly impressive. In a couple years, they could be a top 10-15 team. Right now, they’re a mildly overrated team that lost games to Loyola-Chicago and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. But they go up against an LSU team that’s lost 3 of 4 and has struggled to contain opposing post players. Matt Howard is not the greatest post presence in the country, but neither were AJ Ogilvy and Korvotney Barber, and they ate up LSU’s inside defense.

On the other hand, Butler’s defense is stronger inside the arc than outside, which is where LSU can do some damage, with 3-point gunners Bo Spencer and Marcus Thornton. And while Butler likes to take a lot of threes themselves, LSU’s defense tends to shut that down. And yet …

Earlier in this decade, I developed a simple philosophy in making NCAA picks: never overestimate the Pac-10. That should be our operative maxim for the SEC this week.

5-Illinois
12-Western Kentucky*

This is a possible upset pick, in part becaues of the Hilltoppers’ upset win last year, in part because of Illinois’ anemic offense, and in part because of Chester Frazier’s injury. My head is not completely convinced, given the way Illinois completely shuts down opposing offenses (especially the three-point shot that Western Kentucky loves to take), and given the Hilltoppers’ own so-so D. But my heart is taken by the prospect of Illinois missing Frazier’s leadership, Western Kentucky pounding the offensive glass, and the Illini’s scoring trouble keeping it close throughout. I’ll go with the conventional upset pick.

4-Gonzaga*
13-Akron

Gonzaga is loved by computer rankings, but not by my eyes. I don’t know that we’ll find out who’s right, as both of us predict they’ll get to the Sweet 16 before going down to UNC.

3-Syracuse*
14-Stephen Austin

After playing essentially five games in four days, Syracuse must be tired. But tired enough for the Lumberjacks to spring the upset? Not likely.

6-Arizona State*
11-Temple

This game might just be a three-point shooting contest. Both teams shoot a fair number of threes, and both play with fairly compact defenses. The two are similar in other ways, as well – taking care of the ball, rebounding better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Perhaps one of the stars – James Harden or Dionte Christmas – will take over, but barring that, it’s just gonna be who’s feeling it from deep. Temple seems a bit too dependent on just Christmas, so I’ll go with ASU, who has a few different guys who can get hot.

7-Clemson
10-Michigan*

Tough game to call. Michigan shoots a lot of 3s, but they don’t make a high percentage of them. When in doubt, they chuck. Ironically, Clemson’s full-court pressure defense may allow them to get easy baskets and cleaner looks from outside. But the question is whether their ballhandling is good enough to withstand the pressure without turning it over. There’s no one in the Big Ten who plays this style, so it’s hard to know.

For Clemson’s part, they’ve struggled a bit since the nearly 30-point pasting of Duke midway through the conference season. Perhaps their up-tempo pace is causing fatigue late in the season. Against Michigan, they might find their groove, as Michigan is not a great defensive team, particularly inside. Clemson should have a big advantage on the offensive boards. I don’t have the utmost confidence in their ability to run their halfcourt offense, and this question, along with Michigan’s ability to handle the pressure, should decide the game. I’ll take Michigan in this pick ‘em.

2-Oklahoma*
15-Morgan State

It could happen. After a period of irrational speculation, Oklahoma’s stock has crashed, even with Blake Griffin’s return.

East Region: First Round Preview (and Picks)

Lots of potential upsets in this quarter of the bracket.

1-Pittsburgh*
16-East Tennessee State

East Tennessee State was underseeded, and they’re not happy about it. The good news for Pitt is that after their early exit in the Big East tournament, I suspect they’ll be focused like a laser. As long as the Panthers don’t take their opposition lightly, they should be fine.

8-Oklahoma State*
9-Tennessee

The SEC sucks. Seriously, Tennessee is not a very good team, and Oklahoma State is really coming along late in the season. I feel good about the Cowboys here.

5-Florida State
12-Wisconsin*

Statistically, this is the most even of the 5-12 matchups. In fact, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin ahead of Florida State. On top of that, you’ve got Bo Ryan matching coaching wits with Leonard Hamilton, which isn’t much of a contest. FSU’s first tourney trip in years has the feel of a quick exit.

Although FSU has played some good defense, I think Wisconsin will get its share of points. They take and make a fair number of threes, and that’s what FSU’s defense tends to allow. The Seminoles have a strong interior D, but Wisconsin’s swing offense will tend to take FSU’s bigs away from the basket.

On the other end of the floor, despite undergoing a revolution almost overnight midway through the Big Ten season, Wisconsin’s defense still seems vulnerable to quick, athletic guards. Enter Toney Douglas, the one-man-quick-athletic-guard wrecking crew. Can Travon Hughes handle the assignment? It’s a tough call. Florida State may make me look like a fool, but I’m gonna say yes and go with the Badgers.

4-Xavier
13-Portland State*

There’s something happening here. What it is, ain’t exactly clear.

Actually it’s quite clear. Portland State has a star senior point guard and a three-point oriented offense that is perfect to attack Xavier’s pack-line defense. On the other end of the ball, Portland State has a mediocre defense, but what they do best is defend the three-point line (which is where Xavier thrives) generate turnovers (which is Xavier’s big offensive weakness), and avoid fouls (getting to the foul line is what Xavier does best). Xavier will probably beat them about on the boards, but there are lots of ingredients here for an upset.

Oh, and the game is in Boise. What the hell, let’s take a flyer on these Vikings.

3-Villanova*
14-American

This is turning into my upset bracket, and American has a non-trivial chance of joining the club. They shoot the three well, frequently a key ingredient in low seed upsets, especially so against team like Villanova that doesn’t shut down the area beyond the arc. They can also defend a bit inside. But all in all, it’s hard to see the Patriot League champs winning on what is essentially Nova’s home court. The Wildcats have a lot of weapons and a very balanced offense, and they get after it defensively as well. I really like this Villanova for reasons that – shockingly enough – I can’t entirely explain. In any event, playing at home should keep them focused enough to get past American.

6-UCLA*
11-VCU

VCU is a real upset threat, but I’m not sure this is the ideal matchup. UCLA is probably underseeded, given how efficient their offense is (more than a point per possession in every game this year but two). It’s an offense that’s more than capable of exploiting VCU’s so-so 3-point defense and rebounding. That said, UCLA’s defense has been quite underwhelming this year, and VCU could return the favor. So perhaps we’re looking at a high-scoring shootout. I’m going to stick with the Bruins, though an upset wouldn’t surprise anyone, me included.

7-Texas*
10-Minnesota

I expect a battle under the basket between these two very similar squads. Offensively and defensively, both teams are stronger in the paint than they are outside. Both are stronger rebounding the offensive glass than their own. And both teams have struggled to win away from home. I love Tubby Smith and think he’s done a phenomenal job this year. But the Longhorns have more talent and experience, and that may resolve this stylistic wash. AJ Abrams, in particular, is the kind of difference-maker that Minnesota lacks.

2-Duke*
15-Binghamton

We all like to make fun of Duke, but don’t underestimate these guys They work hard out there, and you have to respect that.

West Region: First Round Previews (and Picks)

1-Uconn*
16-Chattanooga

I guess you never know with UConn, but don’t count on it.

8-BYU*
9-Texas A&M

Strangely enough, this is a rematch of an 8-9 game from last year. I watched the last BYU-Utah game and was pretty impressed with BYU’s pure version of the motion offense, which takes care of the ball and works for good shots. They’ve got the personnel for it, a bunch of guys of average height who are basically interchangeable. (6-7 swingman Lee Cummard is a poor man’s Terrence Williams, a real stat sheet stuffer. He can shoot from anywhere, grab boards, hand out assists, and block shots.) BYU is a fairly stout defensive team as well.

The last time A&M played a motion offense like this was this past weekend – when they lost to Texas Tech. In fact, every time they played the Red Raiders this year, they gave up more than a point per possession. That’s not to say the Aggies are going to roll over here. They beat the Cougars last year, and they’ve finished strong this season, getting better as the season goes on. They are great at getting to the free throw line, and with their size advantage, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them there quite a bit on Thursday.

The March will have the privilege of watching this game in person. It should be a fun one, but at the end of the day, I expect a BYU win.

5-Purdue*
12-Northern Iowa

Purdue can defend with the best of them, and I expect the Boilers to shut down Northern Iowa on that end of the court. The question is whether Purdue can score. UNI’s defense isn’t great, but they tend to pack it in and force you to beat them from outside. With Robbie Hummel healthy and in good form, the Boilers probably have enough to do get it done offensively, but they never have a lot of margin for error on that end.

4-Washington*
13-Mississippi State

The likeliest 4-13 upset. Washington attacks the basket, gets to the free throw line, pounds the offensive glass, and generally gets its points inside. Mississippi State, however, has the best shot-blocker in the country in Jarvis Varnado (yes, better than Hasheem Thabeet) patrolling the paint. That said, MSU doesn’t rebound well, and I’d expect the Huskies’ offense to survive on offensive boards. Expect a lot of putbacks for Jon Brockman. At the other end, Mississippi State is a very three-point oriented team. Washington has a mediocre three-point percentage defense, but they also don’t allow a lot of three-point attempts, period.

Throw in the intangibles – MSU coming off of four games in four days, Washington playing so close to home – and the Huskies have the edge. But an upset here wouldn’t surprise me.

3-Missouri*
14-Cornell

It’s pronounced Colonel. It’s the highest rank in the military.

I don’t give Andy Bernard’s boys much of a chance here. Missouri’s “40 minutes of hell” defense (which is actually more selective than that) is going to give Cornell problems, forcing turnovers, exposing an athleticism deficit, and taking them away from the three-point shot.

6-Marquette
11-Utah State*

This game has serious upset potential. Utah State sports one of the most efficient offenses in the country, with two capable post players complemented by a trio of shooters. I don’t know how Marquette plans to defend them, but what they probably should do is apply a lot of ball pressure to choke off the three-point shot and harass the entry pass, and front the post (as they’ve done against other teams). Offensively, Marquette does most of its damage inside the arc and from the free throw line. This isn’t a bad matchup for the Aggies, who tend to pack it in and don’t foul, though I’m not sure if they can keep up with the athleticism of Jerel McNeal and Lazar Hayward. This game could turn on Marquette’s three-point shooting, which is sometimes prolific, sometimes cold.

The intangibles here favor an upset. First of all, the game is being played in Boise, Idaho, which is likely to create a virtual home court atmosphere. Yes, tip time is 10:30 am Utah time, but it’s 11:30 am Wisconsin time, which isn’t much better. And Marquette will be forced to roll out and ball after a much longer trip. Second, while Marquette hasn’t been terrible since Dominic James went down to a foot injury, losing four out of five (to tough competition) has to take a mental toll.

In 2005, I thought the Aggies would upset Arizona in the first round, in part because of the location of the game, but they didn’t. So I ought to learn my lesson, right? Nah.

7-California
10-Maryland*

Cal has the best 3-point percentage of any team in the country. And yet, they take very few threes, ranking in the bottom 10% in all of Division I. Are they foolishly not playing to their strengths, or is the high percentage a function of good shot selection? Whatever the case, the overall product is ranked number 11 in the country in offensive efficiency. It’s hard to argue with that. It’s a different story defensively where the Bears struggle to force missed shots or turnovers.

As for Maryland, I have no idea how Gary Williams does it. This team is basically Greivis Vasquez and a collection of guys from the local YMCA. Vasquez is a matchup problem for Cal’s guards, and since moving to the point, has made Maryland a much stronger offensive team.

I’ve had a harder time making up my mind on this game than on any other first round matchup that I’ve previewed so far. I suspect it’ll come down to a simple question – will Cal make shots? I’ll guess no and further guess that Gary Williams will pull another coaching rabbit out of a hat, and that Greivis Vasquez will put on a show.

2-Memphis*
15-Cal State Northridge

The best defense in the country isn’t about to get rolled by Cal State Northridge.

Midwest Region: First Round Preview (and Picks)

Here are my picks for the first round games in the Midwest Region. (As I'm not interested in previewing hypothetical, nonexistent matchups, I won't be providing this level of detail for later round matchups until they're actually set. However, I may post a full bracket prediction with a more summary analysis for each region.)

1-Louisville*
16-Alabama State / Morehead State

I pick Louisville.

8-Ohio State*
9-Siena

Siena’s probably a popular pick after they dismantled Vanderbilt in the first round last year. But I’m not sure how this matchup shakes out for the Saints They like to get their points by attacking the lane, and that’s precisely where OSU’s otherwise-mediocre defense is at its best, with their zone tightening up and BJ Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale swatting shots. OSU is vulnerable to the three-pointer, but that’s not Siena’s game – they neither take a lot of threes nor make a high percentage. The Saints will have to push the transition game to try to get some easy buckets. On the other end, Siena may be able to exploit OSU’s sloppiness with the ball and lack of a solid point guard. But the Saints aren’t a great defensive team in general, and OSU scores a good percentage both inside the arc and out.

On the intangibles front, Siena is, ironically, the more experienced Tournament team. But the Buckeyes will have a nice home-court advantage playing in southwest Ohio. A close call, but I go with OSU.

5-Utah*
12-Arizona

The first thing that leaps out to me about this game is Utah’s 3-point offense and Arizona’s 3-point defense. The Utes shoot a lot of threes, and they make a good percentage lot of threes. Arizona’s defense allows teams to shoot a lot of 3s, and they give up a good percentage on those threes. In fact, 36.3 percent of the point scored against Arizona come from behind the arc – that’s the fifth-highest percentage in the country. This is going to be a problem for the Wildcats, especially in what will likely be a relatively low possession game.

Both teams have been much stronger at home than on the road, so it’ll be interesting to see how they perform a couple thousand miles from home in Miami. This is a popular pick for a 12-5 upset, but I’ll go with Utah.

4-Wake*
13-Cleveland State

Wake Forest is an enigmatic team, sometimes able to beat anyone, sometimes putting up real clunkers. The Demon Deacons’ biggest problem is poor decisionmaking in the halfcourt offense which leads to a lot of turnovers. And guess what Cleveland State does best on defense? Generate turnovers. Their aggressive halfcourt style could cause some problems for Wake Forest. In the end, I think Wake’s size advantage, defense, and ability to get to the free throw line will likely carry the day. Much as I’d like to see an upset here, I think it’s going to tough for the Vikes to pull it off.

3-Kansas*
14-North Dakota State

North Dakota State is underseeded. Since December 1, the Bison have gone 24-4, and their four losses have been by a combined total of 11 points. Two of those losses were to NCAA teams, USC (four-point road loss) and Stephen A. Austin (triple overtime). It’s a senior-laden team that is no stranger to big wins. Three years ago, they won at Wisconsin and two years ago, at Marquette.

But can they beat Kansas? Maybe, but they’ll need to take a lot of threes (which is what Texas Tech did to beat Kansas by almost 20 last week). The Bisons shoot very well from behind the arc (40%) – a place that Kansas doesn’t defend that well – but they don’t typically rely on the three-pointer that much. That will have to change here, because they’re not going to get much going inside.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas is a solid offensive team across the board, with good post players (Aldrich, Morris), a point guard who can beat you inside and out (Collins), slashers (Taylor), and shooters (Reed, Morningstar). And they will beat you in transition to boot. The only thing the Jayhawks have to worry about is sloppiness with the ball, but they’ve held that in check of late. An upset is possible, but given the contrast between Kansas’ high-octane offense and NDSU’s throughly mediocre defense, it’s not very likely.

6-West Virginia*
11-Dayton

In the abstract, I think West Virginia is a much better team, but this is a good matchup for Dayton. The Flyers are a long, athletic team that attacks the basket and feasts on the offensive glass, but doesn’t shoot well. West Virginia has a very good defense, but it’s heavy on ball denial and choking off the 3-point line, which doesn’t respond to Dayton’s strengths. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers don’t rebound the defensive glass that well. The one area where West Virginia’s defensive style might produce dividends is in generating turnovers, as Dayton can be careless with the ball.

On the other end of the floor, West Virginia is an even stronger offensive rebounding team than Dayton, and the Flyers have had gotten dominated on their own glass by similar teams like Xavier. The Mountaineers don’t have the best offense in the country, but it’s been improving, and freshman Devin Ebanks has been blossoming.

Despite the less-than-ideal defensive matchup, I think West Virginia is too good a team, and Bob Huggins too good a coach, for them to lose this game.

7-Boston College
10-USC*

Boston College might deserve the title of “most engimatic team” even more than Wake Forest – they beat UNC and Duke and lost to St. Louis and Harvard. They’ll get the Trojans, a mystery of their own, having swept through the Pac-10 tournament after a middling season, addled by an inability to win away from home.

USC mixes defenses a fair amount. I’m not sure that BC’s offense begs for one look or another. A zone would help contain BC’s dribble penetration and keep them shooting, which they don’t do well, but it would also have BC’s offensive glass-eating forwards licking their chops. Man defense would help with rebounding, but make it harder to contain the drive. At the other end, Demar Derozan is becoming the star he was (unfairly) expected to be all season long. I like USC’s chances of getting to the free throw line and getting second chance points against BC. They’ve had trouble with turnovers, but have generally cut down of late. I’m gonna go with Tim Floyd and the Trojans to continue their fine late-season run.

2-Michigan State*
15-Robert Morris

I’m not terribly impressed with Michigan State this year, but if they can’t get past Robert Morris, their problems are more serious than I thought.

First (and Second) Round Tipoff Times (and Announce Crews)

UPDATE: Thanks to the fine folks at Awful Announcing, we can now flesh out the information below with second round game times and announce crews. Good news for the March: Gus Johnson will be announcing the Friday/Sunday games, so no conflict with our Philly plans. Rise and Fire! Lead announce team, Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg, are, of course, sent to Greensboro to cover those super special teams without which college basketball would cease to exist, Duke and UNC.

ESPN is listing tip times for the first round games on Thursday and Friday, though they're not yet on the CBS Sports website. I've reordered them below by game time. We'll post coverage maps and announce crews as soon as we get that information.

Thursday, 3/19

12:20 PM ET - (9) Butler vs. (8) LSU (Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg)
12:25 PM ET - (15) Cal State Northridge vs. (2) Memphis (Tim Brando, Mike Gminski)
12:30 PM ET - (9) Texas A&M vs. (8) Brigham Young (Carter Blackburn, Jay Bilas)
2:30 PM ET - (12) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Purdue (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner)
2:50 PM ET - (16) Radford vs. (1) North Carolina (Nantz, Kellogg)
2:55 PM ET - (10) Maryland vs. (7) California (Brando, Gminski)
3:00 PM ET - (16) Chattanooga vs. (1) Connecticut (Blackburn, Bilas)
5:00 PM ET - (13) Mississippi State vs. (4) Washington (Harlan, Bonner)
7:10 PM ET - (10) Michigan vs. (7) Clemson (Brando, Gminski)
7:10 PM ET - (10) Minnesota vs. (7) Texas (Nantz, Kellogg)
7:20 PM ET - (14) American University vs. (3) Villanova (Dick Enberg, Bilas)
7:25 PM ET - (13) Akron vs. (4) Gonzaga (Harlan, Bonner)
9:40 PM ET - (15) Binghamton vs. (2) Duke (Nantz, Kellogg)
9:40 PM ET - (15) Morgan State vs. (2) Oklahoma (Brando, Gminski)
9:50 PM ET - (11) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (6) UCLA (Enberg, Bilas)
9:55 PM ET - (12) Western Kentucky vs. (5) Illinois (Harlan, Bonner)

Friday, 3/20

12:15 PM ET - (14) Stephen F. Austin vs. (3) Syracuse (Ian Eagle, Jim Spanarkel)
12:25 PM ET - (9) Tennessee vs. (8) Oklahoma State (Verne Lundquist, Bill Raftery)
12:30 PM ET - (14) North Dakota State vs. (3) Kansas (Gus Johnson, Len Elmore)
12:30 PM ET - (11) Utah State vs. (6) Marquette (Craig Bolerjack, Bob Wenzel)
2:45 PM ET - (11) Temple vs. (6) Arizona State (Eagle, Spanarkel)
2:55 PM ET - (16) East Tennessee State vs. (1) Pittsburgh (Lundquist, Raftery)
3:00 PM ET - (11) Dayton vs. (6) West Virginia (Johnson, Elmore)
3:00 PM ET - (14) Cornell vs. (3) Missouri (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
7:10 PM ET - (16) TBA vs. (1) Louisville (Lundquist, Raftery)
7:10 PM ET - (12) Arizona vs. (5) Utah (Eagle, Spanarkel)
7:20 PM ET - (10) USC vs. (7) Boston College (Johnson, Elmore)
7:25 PM ET - (13) Portland State vs. (4) Xavier (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
9:40 PM ET - (9) Siena vs. (8) Ohio State (Lundquist, Raftery)
9:40 PM ET - (13) Cleveland State vs. (4) Wake Forest (Eagle, Spanarkel)
9:50 PM ET - (15) Robert Morris vs. (2) Michigan State (Johnson, Elmore)
9:55 PM ET - (12) Wisconsin vs. (5) Florida State (Bolerjack, Wenzel)

Saturday, 3/21

1:05 PM ET - Villanova/American vs. UCLA/VCU (Enberg, Bilas)
3:20 PM ET - Memphis/Cal St. Northridge vs. California/Maryland (Brando, Gminski)
3:35 PM ET - Connecticut/Chattanooga vs. BYU/Texas A&M (Enberg, Bilas)
5:40 PM ET - Purdue/N. Iowa vs. Washington/Mississippi State (Harlan, Bonner)
5:45 PM ET - North Carolina/Radford vs. LSU/Butler (Nantz, Kellogg)
5:50 PM ET - Oklahoma/Morgan State vs. Clemson/Michigan (Brando, Gminski)
8:00 PM ET - Gonzaga/Akron vs. Illinois/Western Kentucky (Harlan, Bonner)
8:05 PM ET - Duke/Binghamton vs. Texas/Minnesota (Nantz, Kellogg)

Sunday, 3/22

12:10 PM ET-Syracuse/Stephen F. Austin vs. Arizona State/Temple (Eagle, Spanarkel)
2:20 PM ET - Florida State/Wisconsin vs. Xavier/Portland State (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
2:30 PM ET - Kansas/N. Dakota State vs. West Virginia/Dayton (Johnson, Elmore)
2:40 PM ET - Wake Forest/Cleveland State vs. Utah/Arizona (Eagle, Spanarkel)
2:50 PM ET - Oklahoma State/Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh/E. Tennessee State (Lundquist, Raftery)
4:50 PM ET - Missouri/Cornell vs. Marquette/Utah State (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
5:00 PM ET - Michigan State/Robert Morris vs. Boston College/USC (Johnson, Elmore)
5:10 PM ET - Ohio State/Siena vs. Louisville/Alabama State or Morehead State (Lundquist, Raftery)

The State of the Bubble Nation: Post-Mortem

We correctly called 64 of the 65 teams. While we fully expected a photo finish for the last bid, we were surprised that Arizona inched in front, given their atrocious road record and 1-5 finish (two considerations - where and when - that the selection committee supposedly takes into account). Even if you are biased in favor of power conference teams with lots of top 50 wins, Penn State is a better argument. Creighton and St. Mary's also have reason to be upset.

As you'll know from our last Bubble Nation post, we were not surprised to see Wisconsin squeak in as a 12 seed. The lock status accorded them by a lot of commentators was somewhat perplexing.

In any event, the field of 65 is set. The March will be in Philadelphia for first and second round action at the Wachovia Center featuring UConn, BYU, Texas A&M, Chattanooga, Villanova, American, UCLA, and VCU. In the meantime, we will bring you plenty of bracket analysis and commentary. Stay with us for the ride.

Selection Show LIVEBLOGGING

With apologies to the NFL draft and the NBA lottery, the most important single hour of non-competition sports programming is upon us. We'll be liveblogging it right here. Join us as we celebrate Billy Packer's absence and ponder the days until Jim Nantz' similarly glorious demise.

The State of the Bubble Nation: And DOWN the Stretch They Come!

I'm going to simplify this edition of the Bubble Nation by focusing more narrowly on the bids and teams that I think are still genuinely in play. The big news from this weekend was the championship victories for USC, Temple, and Mississippi State, all of whom will now crash the Dance at the expense of two Bubble teams.

Let's start with the math.

At-Large Locks

The following teams are locks for at-large bids. These lists do not include teams that have already captured automatic bids via conference championships.

• ACC (3): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
• Big East (6): Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
• Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota
• Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
• SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
• Mountain West (1): BYU
• Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• Horizon (1): Butler

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids and 31 locks listed above. Accordingly, there are 3 at-large bids available. I've identified 7 bubble teams left, listed below.

To evaluate these teams, I’m going to split them into two groups – power conference teams and mid-major teams – and first compare them to the other teams in their group. Using the official “team sheet” that the selection committee uses, I’ve included more top-line data this time to give as granular a snapshot of these teams as I realistically can.

Power Conference Teams (4):

• Maryland (RPI 55, SOS 21, 4-8 vs. top 50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 12-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) -I think that of all these 7 teams, Maryland is the likeliest to win a bid. The biggest reason is the quality of their top 50 wins - 2 against top 5 teams (Michigan State, North Carolina) and 1 against a top 20 team (Wake Forest). None of the other teams on this list compare in terms of the quality of their best wins. Lean IN.



• Wisconsin (RPI 46, SOS 17, 4-10 vs. top 50, 5-1 vs. 51-100, 9-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The loss to Ohio State Friday and the developments elsewhere have Wisconsin in a very precarious position. Their RPI has plummeted this week. But in addition to the four top 50 wins, they beat Penn State twice, and they have 5 top 51-100 wins, compared to PSU’s 1. They also had an overall much stronger schedule than Penn State. It’ll be hard for the Nittany Lions to leapfrong Wisconsin. That said, I would not be shocked if both teams were left out. Even Odds.



• Penn State (RPI 71, SOS 92, 6-9 vs. top 50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) – On the plus side is the 6 top 50 wins, including two on the ROAD at Michigan State and Illinois. On the minus side is the very low RPI, the so-so schedule, and the two losses to Wisconsin. The tightness of the Bubble might keep them out. Even Odds.



• Arizona (RPI 59, SOS 31, 6-10 vs. top 50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 11-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) – The more I look at Arizona, the more convinced I am that they will be on the outside looking in. The committee has frequently said they look at your home/road split and how you performed towards the end of the season. Arizona has not defeated a single top 100 RPI team on the road. On top of that, they finished the regular season on a 1-4 skid (because of their inability to win on the road). Despite the big non-conference wins against Kansas and Gonzaga, I think the Wildcats' streak of consecutive Tournament appearances (like the other Wildcats') will be coming to an end. Lean OUT.

Mid-Major Teams (3):

• Creighton (RPI 41, SOS 111, 2-2 vs. top 50, 8-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 11-1 last 12) – Creighton’s biggest selling point is the very impressive 11-1 mark in the last 12 games. The second biggest selling point is that in addition to the 2 top 50 wins (which both St. Mary’s and SDSU share), they have a whopping 8 wins against teams ranked 51-100. For these reasons and others that I get into more below, I’m ranking Creighton slightly higher than St. Mary’s and SDSU. Even Odds.



• St. Mary's (RPI 43, SOS 141, 2-3 vs. top 50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 20-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) – There is a lot of pressure on the Committee to account for Patty Mills’ injury in evaluating St. Mary’s. The problem is that even if you do, how much stronger is their resume compared to the other teams on this list? They lost 3 games with Mills out – 2 to Gonzaga, 1 to Portland. With Mills in his current condition (which is how they’ll be evaluated), they lost to Gonzaga by 20-plus points. So you can’t say that they would’ve won those 2 games against Gonzaga. Of course, it’s fair to say they would’ve defeated Portland. But that adjusts their resume by exactly one win against a 100+ RPI team. Is that enough? How do their top 50 wins against SDSU and Utah State compare to Creighton’s over Dayton and Illinois State? Pretty much a wash. But Creighton has 8 more solid wins against top 50-100 teams, while St. Mary’s has just one. On the other hand, Creighton has two bad losses, while St. Mary’s would have zero. This is one of the most confounding Bubble cases you will ever see. But at the end of the day, even if you account for Mills’ injury, it’s not clear that St. Mary’s has a stronger argument than Creighton. Even Odds.



• San Diego State (RPI 35, SOS 47, 2-6 vs. top 50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - The Aztecs' MWC tournament wins against UNLV and BYU have rejuvenated their at-large chances. The problem is what happens when the committee gets down to comparing the last few teams. First, the Aztecs have lost to two of the other teams on this list (St. Mary's and Arizona). Second, of the other teams on this list, they are probably most comparable to Creighton (St. Mary’s is also a mid-major, but has very unusual circumstances). Both teams have top 2 top 50 wins, but Creighton has a better percentage record against the top 50, double the number of wins against teams 51-100, and a very impressive 11-1 run down the stretch. At the end of the day, SDSU just doesn’t have something that allows them to stand out from this pack (like Creighton’s last 12 record, St. Mary’s’ injury situation, etc.). Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

I think Maryland is certainly in, given the number and quality of their best wins, two of which came in their last 12 games. And I think Arizona is definitely out because of the home/road record and the 1-5 finish. I’m also ruling out San Diego State because of the comparative problems outlined above.

So that leaves four teams competing for two spots: Wisconsin, Penn State, Creighton, and St. Mary’s. Let's try to eliminate teams from this group by focusing on the head-to-head direct comparisons.

Wisconsin's high SOS, head-to-head wins over Penn State, number of top 50 wins, record against teams 51-100 … it all helps them in a direct comparison against these other three teams. Let’s give them the second bid.

As I explained above, because of the late season ‘what team are you now’ focus, I think Creighton’s resume is (barely) better than St. Mary’s’. So I see this coming down to Penn State and Creighton. It’s very, very difficult to compare these two teams because they come from different kinds of conferences and have different scheduling situations. I’m gonna go with Creighton. At first glance, no team outside the top 70 RPI has won an at-large bid in the last 10 years. Creighton’s overall top 100 record compares favorably with Penn State’s. And the Bluejays’ 11-1 mark down the stretch sticks out.

Having said that, it would not surprise me to see St. Mary’s leapfrog Penn State or Creighton to grab the final slot. The Mills situation is so unusual, and the pressure not to punish the Gaels so large, that I could see the Committee choosing them. Any of these three teams getting in would not surprise me.

But my best guess at the 34 at-large bids we’ll see in about an hour is as follows:

• ACC (6): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland
• Big East (6): Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
• Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue/Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
• Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
• SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
• Mountain West (1): BYU
• Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• Horizon (1): Butler
• Missouri Valley (1): Creighton

Penn State, St. Mary's, San Diego State, and Arizona the first four out.

Auto Bid Alert (Bid Burglar Edition): MISSISSIPPI STATE

In a tragic result, the atrocious SEC has stolen a third bid to the Dance, with Mississippi State defeating Tennessee in a game that, according to Srinivas and consistent with the quality of the SEC, was notable mostly for the horrendous shot selection. The Bulldogs have just sent a more-deserving Bubble team to the NIT, so that we have the privilege of watching not just 2, but 3 mediocre SEC teams in the Tournament. Suffice to say that this is a disappointing result.

As I will explain shortly in my final State of the Bubble Nation analysis, 7 bubble teams are now competing for just 3 bids.

Auto Bid Alert: UTAH STATE

Utah State has put the finishing touches on a very impressive 30-win season with a victory over Nevada in the WAC championship game. The Aggies will Dance with a highly efficient offense that can score from both inside (Gary Wilkinson) and out (take your pick of three-point shooters). Congrats to Stew Morrill's crew.

Just five auto bids left, the last four of which will be decided tomorrow: Big West (late tonight), Southland, ACC, Big Ten, SEC.

Auto Bid Alert: ALABAMA STATE

The undisputed captain of college basketball's all-name team, seven-footer Chief Kickingstallionsims, and his Alabama State teammates (including less-heralded all-name nominee Ivory White) are headed to the Big Dance. Despite a great conference record of 16-2, the Hornets are due for a 16 seed due to the relatively poor quality of the SWAC, a conference composed of a number historically black colleges.

The State of the Bubble Nation: T-Minus 30 Hours

UPDATE: This has been edited to include USC, whom I mistakenly excluded.

It's tight on this fence since them young dudes are muscling in.

Here's an update on where things stand after Friday's action, where the major developments were: (1) big wins for Maryland, San Diego State, Temple, and Auburn, (2) losses for Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Penn State, Florida, and South Carolina, and (3) Xavier and Dayton crashing out of the A-10 touranment, which means that either Temple or Duquesne is going to steal an at-large bid.

The Locks

The following teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments (listed by conference). This list is unchanged from yesterday.

• ACC (6): UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
• Big East (7): Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
• Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota


• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M


• PAC-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
• SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
• Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• C-USA (1): Memphis
• Horizon (1): Butler

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids. Assuming that each of the above conference tournaments (except for the Horizon and A-10) is won by one of the 37 locks listed above, 8 will win automatic bids, and 29 will win at-large bids. That leaves 5 at-large bids up for grabs. Who's in contention to grab these remaining 5 bids? I've identified 17 bubble teams, listed below by conference:

ACC (2):

• Maryland (RPI 51, SOS 30, 4-6 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Huge win for the Terps against Wake Forest on Friday. They've still got a so-so RPI, but with wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, and Wake, they look strong. Lean IN.



• Virginia Tech (RPI 63, SOS 19, 2-9 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - The Hokies came up just short againts a Lawson-less UNC yesterday. With the low RPI, just two top 50 wins, a pair of bad losses, and a weak record down the stretch, the Hokies look NIT-bound. Lean OUT.

Big East (1):

• Providence (RPI 65, SOS 49, 2-7 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs RPI 100+) – The 11-point win against lowly Depaul and the 22 point drubbing at the hands of Louisville didn’t help Providence’s chances. The Friars are now on the outside looking in. Lean OUT.

Big Ten (2):

• Wisconsin (RPI 46, SOS 17, 4-10 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - The loss to Ohio State yesterday and the developments elsewhere have Wisconsin in a very precarious position. Their RPI has plummeted this week, and their top 50 record is very so-so. Their 7-3 record down the stretch is a boost, but Wisconsin cannot feel safe at all. Lean IN.



• Penn State (RPI 69, SOS 90, 6-9 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – Penn State's loss to Purdue, coupled with big wins by Maryland and San Diego state (see above and below) means the Nittany Lions remain squarely on the bubble. They’ve got a low RPI, but 6 wins against RPI top 50 in a power conference. That's usually enough to boost a low RPI team into the Tourney, but what has happened (and will happen) elsewhere on the Bubble might squeeze Penn State out. Even Odds.

Pac-10 (1):

• Arizona (RPI 58, SOS 29, 6-10 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – As with Penn State, despite the low RPI, 6 wins against top 50 RPI teams is usually enough to bootstrap your way into the Tournament. Plus Arizona has some very nice wins non-conference wins against Kansas and Gonzaga. The big problem here is the 1-4 regular season finish and the atrocious road record. These are important factors for the selection committee. This thing could go either way. Even Odds.



• USC (RPI 43, SOS 20, 4-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Two Pac-10 tourney wins over Cal and UCLA, and suddenly USC has played its way onto the Bubble. Despite the pretty good RPI and four top 50 wins, I don't think the Trojans have worked their way into the field yet. They finished the regular season 6-9 and have 3 bad losses. It wouldn't surprise me if they made the field, but absent a win over Arizona State today (in which case they wouldn't need an at-large bid, because they'll get an auto bid), I think they're out.Lean OUT.

SEC (4):

• Auburn (RPI 57, SOS 68, 2-3 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Improbably, with the win over Florida, Auburn is the SEC's last hope for 3 bids. Not very likely, with the lack of any meaningful non-conference wins and just two top 50 wins. If they beat Tennessee today, they might stand a shot. Lean OUT.



• Florida (RPI 52, SOS 82, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – What rhymes with back-to-back champions? Back-to-back NIT trips! The loss to Auburn yesterday blows the Gators off the Bubble and out. Lean OUT



• South Carolina (RPI 59, SOS 93, 0-4 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – My anti-Gamecocks mission was finally vindicated with their loss to Mississippi State yesterday. This lousy resume just got worse. Lean OUT.



• Kentucky (RPI 79, SOS 62, 2-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Hahahahhahahaha.OUT.

Mountain West (3):

• San Diego State (RPI 32, SOS 53, 2-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - A very big win by the Aztecs last night against BYU. It was a badly needed top 50 win. With the win against UNLV the day before, the Aztecs have done wonders for their RPI and played themselves into pole position for a bid. Lean IN.



• New Mexico (RPI 67, SOS 79, 3-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – The loss to Wyoming late Thursday probably ended their chances. They had made a strong case with an 8-1 record to close the regular season, including wins against Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. But the loss to Wyoming reinforces the biggest fear about them – they can’t win away from home. I leave them on here because of the late-season form, but if it were up to me, they’d be definitely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.



• UNLV (RPI 65, SOS 81, 4-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – A devastating loss to San Diego State, their third of the season, probably ended their chances. Despite strong non-con wins against Louisville (on the road) and Arizona and a season sweep of BYU, the 8-8 finish to the season – including losses to TCU and Colorado State – will almost certainly keep them out. Lean OUT.

Atlantic-10 (1):

• Temple (RPI 34, SOS 47, 2-5 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Temple got a huge win over Xavier (RPI 15) to keep its at-large hopes alive. Here's the Temple quandary, though - if they beat Duquesne today, they don't need an at-large bid. If they lose, though, that puts a dent in their at-large chances. I'll deal with this peculiar scenario below, but for now, I'm going to list them as: Lean OUT.

West Coast (1):

• St. Mary's (RPI 42, SOS 140, 2-3 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – St. Mary's beat lowly Eastern Washington last night in a last-minute addition to the schedule designed to show off what Patty Mills can do post-injury. He improved his performance over the WCC tournament, scoring 19 points on 6-of-14 shooting (4-for-9 from 3-pt range), but you have to consider the competition. I still think it's hard to ignore the fact that 3 of their 5 losses came with Mills out of the lineup. But with the way things are breaking on the Bubble, it's starting to look really tough for St. Mary's. Even Odds.

Missouri Valley (1):

• Creighton (RPI 41, SOS 111, 3-2 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – I devoted one long post to Creighton two days ago. For the reasons stated therein: Even Odds.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 23, SOS 135, 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - They will only need an at-large bid IF they win fail to win their conference tournament (their fellow bubble teams will be rooting hard for them). They barely survived New Mexico State last night, but the narrow victory doesn't make them look good. As with Temple, the scenario in which they'd need an at-large bid - a loss in the conference tournament - is the scenario in which they likely don't get one. Precedent isn't on their side. In 2002, they went 25-2 in the regular season, but then lost in their conference tourney, and were denied an at large bid. Close, but I go with: Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

If the "lean in" teams above - Maryland, Wisconsin, San Diego State - take 3 bids, that leaves just 2 left for the following teams: Penn State, Arizona, St. Mary’s, Creighton, and Temple (if they don't win the conference championship today). This is a really tough decision, and frankly, I have no clue how the Committee might decide it. Later today, I'm going to take a look at some more historical data to see how the Committee might break these kinds of logjams, but my sense is that there's no discernible trend that would provide much guidance. I'm going to go with Penn State and Arizona for now (who I ranked above St. Mary's and Creighton yesterday as well). But I reserve the right to change my analysis in the next 30 hours. So my final count, as of now, is as follows:

• ACC (7): UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
• Big East (7): Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
• Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State
• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• PAC-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
• SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee


• Mountain West (3): BYU, Utah, San Diego State
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• C-USA (1): Memphis
• Horizon (1): Butler

Note: The assumption above that all the above conference tourneys that haven’t been decided will be won by at-large locks is a critical one. If Baylor manages to win the Big 12 or Auburn the SEC or Memphis fails to win C-USA or etc, that last team or two could get squeezed out.

The State of the Bubble(s) Nation, Friday the 13th Edition

After an unbelievably wild Thursday, on the Bubble and off it, it’s time to take stock again.

The Locks

The following teams are locks or near-locks (i.e., the only thing that would keep them out is a crazy scenario involving multiple surprise conference champions) for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments (listed by conference):

• ACC (6): UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
• Big East (7): Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
• Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota
• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• PAC-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
• SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
• Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• C-USA (1): Memphis
• Horizon (1): Butler

Texas A&M and Cal make the list despite disappointing first-round losses in their respective conference tourneys. Their seeds will take a hit, but they’ll be there.

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids. Assuming that each of the above conference tournaments (except the already-decided Horizon) is won by one of the locks listed above, 9 will win automatic bids, and 28 will win at-large bids. That leaves 6 at-large bids up for grabs. Who's in contention to grab these remaining 6 bids? I've identified 17 bubble teams, listed below by conference:

ACC (2):

• Virginia Tech (RPI 57, SOS 26, 2-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Virginia Tech beat Miami in an elimination game to stay alive, but that won’t clinch a bid for them. A win against UNC on Friday would lock down a bid, but barring that, they’ll be twisting in the wind come Sunday evening. They will be hurt by their 1-6 regular season finish, even though it was against a brutal schedule, and the one win was a big one against Clemson. But their two big wins (Wake, Clemson) were on the road. The committee has to be impressed by that. Even odds.



• Maryland (RPI 63, SOS 30, 3-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Maryland took care of NC State Thursday in a must-win game. If they beat Wake on Friday, they’re probably in, but if they lose, they’re probably out. Even Odds.

Big East (1):

• Providence (RPI 65, SOS 49, 2-7 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs RPI 100+) – The 11-point win against lowly Depaul and the 22 point drubbing at the hands of Louisville didn’t help Providence’s chances. The Friars are now on the outside looking in. Lean OUT.

Big Ten (2):

• Wisconsin (RPI 41, SOS 14, 4-9 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Wisconsin's RPI has dropped nine spots since Monday despite not playing a game. That shows you that other bubble teams are taking advantage of their opportunities. The Badgers get their chance on Friday, as a win over Ohio State will clinch a bid. Even if they lose, they’ll probably make it, but it will depend on what happens elsewhere. They shouldn’t leave it to chance. Strong lean IN.



• Penn State (RPI 68, SOS 96, 6-8 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – After the disappointing loss to Iowa, Penn State took care of business against Indiana. A win against Purdue would definitely get them in, but a loss would leave them teetering on the very edge of the bubble. They’ve got a low RPI, but 6 wins against RPI top 50 in a power conference is usually enough to boost a low RPI team into the Tourney. Even Odds.

Pac-10 (1):

• Arizona (RPI 56, SOS 27, 6-10 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – They blew their chance to lock up a bid by losing to Arizona State on Thursday, but that’s hardly a bad loss. As with Penn State, despite the low RPI, 6 wins against top 50 RPI teams is usually enough to bootstrap your way into the Tournament. Plus Arizona has some very nice wins non-conference wins against Kansas and Gonzaga. The big problem here is the 1-4 regular season finish and the atrocious road record. These are important factors for the selection committee. This thing could go either way. Even odds.

SEC (4):

• Florida (RPI 47, SOS 87, 2-6 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – Florida stayed alive with a win over Arkansas, but they’re hardly in the clear. A win over a not-completely-terrible Auburn team would help their chances, but still not be enough by itself. Just two top 50 wins is going to be tough to overcome. I think they need to get to the SEC Championship to Dance. Even odds.



• South Carolina (RPI 50, SOS 90, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – I remain firm in my belief that South Carolina does not deserve to Dance. When your only top 50 win is against fellow bubble denizen Florida, you just don’t have much to crow about. A win against Mississippi State isn’t going to change that. They have to beat LSU in the semis. As I mentioned before, though, I can't shake the feeling that the SEC isn't going to get the punishment they deserve this year. Lean OUT.



• Auburn (RPI 64, SOS 69, 2-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Auburn wants to be considered. Fine. Beat Florida and Tennessee, and then we'll talk. Lean OUT.



• Kentucky (RPI 75, SOS 68, 4-6 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – I’m just too afraid of reverse-jinxing them to take them off the list until it’s official. Seriously, a run to the conference championship could give them 6 top 50 wins and boost their RPI to the point where they’d have an outside shot. Lean OUT.

Mountain West (3):

• San Diego State (RPI 37, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - The Aztecs stayed alive and significantly boosted their RPI with the win over UNLV. A win over Utah in the semis would send them through, but if they lose Friday, they’ll be right on the Bubble’s edge. The problem remains just 1 top 50 win. Even Odds.



• New Mexico (RPI 67, SOS 79, 3-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – The loss to Wyoming late Thursday probably ended their chances. They had made a strong case with an 8-1 record to close the regular season, including wins against Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. But the loss to Wyoming reinforces the biggest fear about them – they can’t win away from home. I leave them on here because of the late-season form, but if it were up to me, they’d be definitely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.



• UNLV (RPI 66, SOS 81, 4-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – A devastating loss to San Diego State, their third of the season, probably ended their chances. Despite strong non-con wins against Louisville (on the road) and Arizona and a season sweep of BYU, the 8-8 finish to the season – including losses to TCU and Colorado State – will almost certainly keep them out. Lean OUT.

Atlantic-10 (1):

• Temple (RPI 40, SOS 50, 1-5 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Temple stayed alive with the win over Big 5 rival, St. Joe’s. The RPI is decent (they played a good non-con schedule), but the lack of quality wins and the number of bad losses is a major obstacle. They need to beat Xavier on Friday to have a chance. Lean OUT.

West Coast (1):

• St. Mary's (RPI 44, SOS 142, 2-3 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – The Gaels remaining the most interesting Bubble case. The drubbing at Gonzaga’s hands in the WCC championship game put a big damper on their at-large hopes. Patty Mills hasn’t been very good since his return. In a feat of scheduling magic, Coach Bennett managed to get a game against Eastern Washington Friday night for one last chance to show the committee what kind of team they can be with Mills. In the end, I feel it’ll be hard to overlook the fact that 4 of their 6 losses came with him sidelined, but this is a really tough call. Even Odds.

Missouri Valley (1):

• Creighton (RPI 42, SOS 108, 3-2 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – I devoted one long post to Creighton yesterday. For the reasons stated therein: Even Odds.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 28, SOS 138, 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - They will only need an at-large bid IF they win fail to win their conference tournament (their fellow bubble teams will be rooting hard for them). Along with Davidson's loss to Butler, Utah State's loss at St. Mary's may have been the most consequential Bracket Buster result. The event was started precisely to give squads like Utah State an opportunity to prove themselves against other top mid-major squads. But the Aggies blew their chance, losing 74-65 to a Mills-less St. Mary's squad. That, coupled with the generally weak schedule and road losses at Boise State and Nevada late in the year, could have them on the outside looking in. While they have a win over Utah, a really strong RPI, and a gaudy 26-4 record, precedent isn't on their side. In 2002, they went 25-2 in the regular season, but then lost in their conference tourney, and were denied an at large bid. Close, but I go with: Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

If Wisconsin takes one of the 6 remaining bids, that leaves 5, with the following 8 teams best-positioned (for now) to snatch them up - Virginia Tech, Maryland, Penn State, Arizona, Florida, San Diego State, St. Mary’s, and Creighton (if they don't win their conference championship). If I had to pick right now, I'd take Penn State, Arizona, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, and Creighton. So my final count, as of this morning, is as follows:

• ACC (6): UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
• Big East (7): Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
• Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State
• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• PAC-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Arizona
• SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
• Mountain West (3): BYU, Utah, San Diego State
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• C-USA (1): Memphis


• Horizon (1): Butler
• West Coast (1): St. Mary's
• Missouri Valley (1): Creighton

Big caveat: The assumption above that all the above conference tourneys that haven’t been decided will be won by at-large locks is a critical one. If Baylor manages to win the Big 12 or Temple the A-10 or Auburn the SEC or etc, those last few teams (currently Creighton, San Diego State, St. Mary’s) could get squeezed out.

High Five

RIP

The Hardware Store (ACC and Big East Edition)

I've been meaning to do this since the regular season ended on Sunday, but better late than never. Here are my postseason awards for the Big East and ACC:

ACC

All-Conference Team:

• Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
• Gerald Henderson, Duke
• Ty Lawson, North Carolina (Player of the Year)
• Jack McClinton, Miami
• Jeff Teague, Wake Forest

Newcomer of the Year: Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
Coach of the Year: Al Skinner, Boston College

Big East

All-Conference Team:

• Dejuan Blair, Pittsburgh (Player of the Year)
• Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
• Jerel McNeal, Marquette
• Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
• Terrence Williams, Louisville

Newcomer of the Year: Greg Monroe, Georgetown
Coach of the Year: Jay Wright, Villanova

Notes:

1. Tyler Hansbrough, though somewhat overrated (or maybe just overexposed), is a very good player. But Ty Lawson is more efficient, more versatile, and more valuable to his team. Rest him up, Roy, you'll need him.


2. Yes, Florida State outperformed expectations. But expectations were so low because they've horribly underachieved relative to their talent level for years. Leonard Hamilton shouldn't win coach of the year just because he didn't waste this team's talent like he usually does. Al Skinner gets the nod, narrowly over Gary Williams.


3. Blair, McNeal, and Williams are three of my favorite players in college basketball. Williams is the quintessential, do-everything stat-sheet stuffer, McNeal is a go-to guy on both ends of the court, and Blair's offensive efficiency and rebounding dominance are a thing to behold for a guy who measures 6-7. I haven't always been a Big East proponent, but I am this year.


4. The Hasheem Hype bothers me just a little. He's offensively so-so, and the reason UConn is a top team is because they are strong at all positions. By comparison, Thabeet's teammates (especially Price and Adrien) don't get as much recognition as they deserve. But on the merits, you can't ignore the way he changes the game defensively.

(Abuse of) Statistics 101

At Bracketology 101, a commenter has marshaled some supposedly relevant historical statistics to argue that Creighton should get an at-large bid. He notes that in the past 10 years, there have been 133 teams in the RPI top 50 who had 25 wins, and all went to the Tournament. Because Creighton has an RPI of 39 (now 40) and 26 wins, the commenter concludes that they should Dance.

At first glance, perhaps this sounds compelling. After all, 133 teams! 10 years! No one with this profile has ever been denied!
In fact, this is a great opportunity to explore the abuse of statistics in sports. Let’s look at why.

(1) To use historical comparisons to assess Creighton's chances, you have to compare Creighton to teams that were in a similar situation. It’s completely meaningless to compare this year’s Creighton to teams that were clear locks and nowhere close to the bubble. But that’s exactly what the commenter does by including all 133 teams with top 50 RPIs and 25 wins. This includes, for example, all of the top 10 RPI teams last year (e.g., Kansas, Memphis, UNC, UCLA). Does the fact that these teams made the Tournament tell you anything about Creighton’s chances this year? Of course not.

To make a meaningful comparison, let’s limit it to the 20 teams ranked from 31 – 50 in the RPI (roughly 10 spots above and below where Creighton’s RPI is right now). Because there are 34 at-large bids total, this tends to be the “bubble range” where the rubber hits the road. If you focus on that range, there are only 18 teams who have won 25 games. The incredibly compelling "133 teams in 10 years" figure starts to lose its allure.

(2) Still, you might think that 18 out of 18 is a pretty solid indicator. If these 18 teams all made it, doesn’t that bode well for Creighton’s chances? Well the problem is that not all 18 of these teams received at-large bids. In fact, only 3 of them did! The other 15 received automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments, so we have no idea whether the Selection Committee would’ve given them an at-large bid or not. So now instead of 133 teams in 10 years, we are down to 3 similarly situated teams in 10 years. Sure, all have made the Tournament, but at this point the sample size is so small that the comparison is not all that meaningful. Still, let’s take a look at these three teams, and see what they tell us about this year’s Creighton team. Here they are (RPI in parentheses):

• 2006 George Washington (37) - This team had a clearly superior resume to Creighton's. They went 26-1 during the regular season before being upset in the A-10 tournament, had a 3-0 record against top 50 teams and no bad losses. Creighton went 25-6 during this regular season, was 2-2 against top 50 teams, and lost twice to teams ranked above 150 in the RPI. This is not a useful comparison.
  
• 2002 Southern Illinois (50) - This is actually a very good comparison. Southern Illinois, another Valley team, finished with the exact record Creighton has now (26-7), had 3 top 50 wins (including one over Indiana that I remembered listening to on the internet), and a handful of bad losses (more than Creighton).
  
• 2001 St. Joe’s (35) - This is also a sound comparison. St. Joe’s finished 25-6, had 3 top 50 wins, and a couple of bad losses.

These last two comparisons are actually instructive and bode well for Creighton's chances.

On the other hand, what happens if we adjust the parameters of the commenter’s comparisons ever so slightly? What if we look at top 50 RPI teams that had 24 wins instead of 25? Well that gives us the case of the 2006 Hofstra team that did not make the tournament, despite a higher RPI (30) and a resume that is very similar to Creighton’s now. They were 24-6, 3-2 against the top 50, and had one loss outside the top 100. They also played in a tougher conference, which sent two teams to the tournament, one of whom reached the Final Four. And yet, they were denied.

Consider also the case of the 2006 Missouri State squad, another Valley team, that was ranked 21 in the RPI (!). They played five fewer games than Creighton did this year, so they only won 20, but they had 4 top 50 wins, and not a single loss outside the top 50. And that year’s Valley conference was much tougher, producing four Tourney teams and two Sweet 16 runs. Yet Missouri State wasn't invited to the Dance.

The bottom line here is that historical information can be helpful, but in the case of Creighton, the evidence is limited and mixed. Unfortunately, the commenter’s statistical abuse is just a microcosm of the way in which sports commentators assign predictive value to so-called historical trends without any regard for the relevant variables or sample size.