The State of the Bubble Nation: And DOWN the Stretch They Come!

I'm going to simplify this edition of the Bubble Nation by focusing more narrowly on the bids and teams that I think are still genuinely in play. The big news from this weekend was the championship victories for USC, Temple, and Mississippi State, all of whom will now crash the Dance at the expense of two Bubble teams.

Let's start with the math.

At-Large Locks

The following teams are locks for at-large bids. These lists do not include teams that have already captured automatic bids via conference championships.

• ACC (3): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
• Big East (6): Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
• Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota
• Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
• SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
• Mountain West (1): BYU
• Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• Horizon (1): Butler

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids and 31 locks listed above. Accordingly, there are 3 at-large bids available. I've identified 7 bubble teams left, listed below.

To evaluate these teams, I’m going to split them into two groups – power conference teams and mid-major teams – and first compare them to the other teams in their group. Using the official “team sheet” that the selection committee uses, I’ve included more top-line data this time to give as granular a snapshot of these teams as I realistically can.

Power Conference Teams (4):

• Maryland (RPI 55, SOS 21, 4-8 vs. top 50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 12-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) -I think that of all these 7 teams, Maryland is the likeliest to win a bid. The biggest reason is the quality of their top 50 wins - 2 against top 5 teams (Michigan State, North Carolina) and 1 against a top 20 team (Wake Forest). None of the other teams on this list compare in terms of the quality of their best wins. Lean IN.



• Wisconsin (RPI 46, SOS 17, 4-10 vs. top 50, 5-1 vs. 51-100, 9-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The loss to Ohio State Friday and the developments elsewhere have Wisconsin in a very precarious position. Their RPI has plummeted this week. But in addition to the four top 50 wins, they beat Penn State twice, and they have 5 top 51-100 wins, compared to PSU’s 1. They also had an overall much stronger schedule than Penn State. It’ll be hard for the Nittany Lions to leapfrong Wisconsin. That said, I would not be shocked if both teams were left out. Even Odds.



• Penn State (RPI 71, SOS 92, 6-9 vs. top 50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) – On the plus side is the 6 top 50 wins, including two on the ROAD at Michigan State and Illinois. On the minus side is the very low RPI, the so-so schedule, and the two losses to Wisconsin. The tightness of the Bubble might keep them out. Even Odds.



• Arizona (RPI 59, SOS 31, 6-10 vs. top 50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 11-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) – The more I look at Arizona, the more convinced I am that they will be on the outside looking in. The committee has frequently said they look at your home/road split and how you performed towards the end of the season. Arizona has not defeated a single top 100 RPI team on the road. On top of that, they finished the regular season on a 1-4 skid (because of their inability to win on the road). Despite the big non-conference wins against Kansas and Gonzaga, I think the Wildcats' streak of consecutive Tournament appearances (like the other Wildcats') will be coming to an end. Lean OUT.

Mid-Major Teams (3):

• Creighton (RPI 41, SOS 111, 2-2 vs. top 50, 8-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 11-1 last 12) – Creighton’s biggest selling point is the very impressive 11-1 mark in the last 12 games. The second biggest selling point is that in addition to the 2 top 50 wins (which both St. Mary’s and SDSU share), they have a whopping 8 wins against teams ranked 51-100. For these reasons and others that I get into more below, I’m ranking Creighton slightly higher than St. Mary’s and SDSU. Even Odds.



• St. Mary's (RPI 43, SOS 141, 2-3 vs. top 50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 20-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) – There is a lot of pressure on the Committee to account for Patty Mills’ injury in evaluating St. Mary’s. The problem is that even if you do, how much stronger is their resume compared to the other teams on this list? They lost 3 games with Mills out – 2 to Gonzaga, 1 to Portland. With Mills in his current condition (which is how they’ll be evaluated), they lost to Gonzaga by 20-plus points. So you can’t say that they would’ve won those 2 games against Gonzaga. Of course, it’s fair to say they would’ve defeated Portland. But that adjusts their resume by exactly one win against a 100+ RPI team. Is that enough? How do their top 50 wins against SDSU and Utah State compare to Creighton’s over Dayton and Illinois State? Pretty much a wash. But Creighton has 8 more solid wins against top 50-100 teams, while St. Mary’s has just one. On the other hand, Creighton has two bad losses, while St. Mary’s would have zero. This is one of the most confounding Bubble cases you will ever see. But at the end of the day, even if you account for Mills’ injury, it’s not clear that St. Mary’s has a stronger argument than Creighton. Even Odds.



• San Diego State (RPI 35, SOS 47, 2-6 vs. top 50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - The Aztecs' MWC tournament wins against UNLV and BYU have rejuvenated their at-large chances. The problem is what happens when the committee gets down to comparing the last few teams. First, the Aztecs have lost to two of the other teams on this list (St. Mary's and Arizona). Second, of the other teams on this list, they are probably most comparable to Creighton (St. Mary’s is also a mid-major, but has very unusual circumstances). Both teams have top 2 top 50 wins, but Creighton has a better percentage record against the top 50, double the number of wins against teams 51-100, and a very impressive 11-1 run down the stretch. At the end of the day, SDSU just doesn’t have something that allows them to stand out from this pack (like Creighton’s last 12 record, St. Mary’s’ injury situation, etc.). Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

I think Maryland is certainly in, given the number and quality of their best wins, two of which came in their last 12 games. And I think Arizona is definitely out because of the home/road record and the 1-5 finish. I’m also ruling out San Diego State because of the comparative problems outlined above.

So that leaves four teams competing for two spots: Wisconsin, Penn State, Creighton, and St. Mary’s. Let's try to eliminate teams from this group by focusing on the head-to-head direct comparisons.

Wisconsin's high SOS, head-to-head wins over Penn State, number of top 50 wins, record against teams 51-100 … it all helps them in a direct comparison against these other three teams. Let’s give them the second bid.

As I explained above, because of the late season ‘what team are you now’ focus, I think Creighton’s resume is (barely) better than St. Mary’s’. So I see this coming down to Penn State and Creighton. It’s very, very difficult to compare these two teams because they come from different kinds of conferences and have different scheduling situations. I’m gonna go with Creighton. At first glance, no team outside the top 70 RPI has won an at-large bid in the last 10 years. Creighton’s overall top 100 record compares favorably with Penn State’s. And the Bluejays’ 11-1 mark down the stretch sticks out.

Having said that, it would not surprise me to see St. Mary’s leapfrog Penn State or Creighton to grab the final slot. The Mills situation is so unusual, and the pressure not to punish the Gaels so large, that I could see the Committee choosing them. Any of these three teams getting in would not surprise me.

But my best guess at the 34 at-large bids we’ll see in about an hour is as follows:

• ACC (6): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland
• Big East (6): Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
• Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue/Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
• Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
• SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
• Mountain West (1): BYU
• Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• Horizon (1): Butler
• Missouri Valley (1): Creighton

Penn State, St. Mary's, San Diego State, and Arizona the first four out.