1-UNC*
16-Radford
Sadly, Big Art Parakhouski’s run will be coming to an end.
8-LSU
9-Butler*
This blog is nothing if not committed to the proposition that the SEC sucks. But this is a tough game to call. Butler is a fine team, and what Brad Stevens has done with such a youthful squad is incredibly impressive. In a couple years, they could be a top 10-15 team. Right now, they’re a mildly overrated team that lost games to Loyola-Chicago and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. But they go up against an LSU team that’s lost 3 of 4 and has struggled to contain opposing post players. Matt Howard is not the greatest post presence in the country, but neither were AJ Ogilvy and Korvotney Barber, and they ate up LSU’s inside defense.
On the other hand, Butler’s defense is stronger inside the arc than outside, which is where LSU can do some damage, with 3-point gunners Bo Spencer and Marcus Thornton. And while Butler likes to take a lot of threes themselves, LSU’s defense tends to shut that down. And yet …
Earlier in this decade, I developed a simple philosophy in making NCAA picks: never overestimate the Pac-10. That should be our operative maxim for the SEC this week.
5-Illinois
12-Western Kentucky*
This is a possible upset pick, in part becaues of the Hilltoppers’ upset win last year, in part because of Illinois’ anemic offense, and in part because of Chester Frazier’s injury. My head is not completely convinced, given the way Illinois completely shuts down opposing offenses (especially the three-point shot that Western Kentucky loves to take), and given the Hilltoppers’ own so-so D. But my heart is taken by the prospect of Illinois missing Frazier’s leadership, Western Kentucky pounding the offensive glass, and the Illini’s scoring trouble keeping it close throughout. I’ll go with the conventional upset pick.
4-Gonzaga*
13-Akron
Gonzaga is loved by computer rankings, but not by my eyes. I don’t know that we’ll find out who’s right, as both of us predict they’ll get to the Sweet 16 before going down to UNC.
3-Syracuse*
14-Stephen Austin
After playing essentially five games in four days, Syracuse must be tired. But tired enough for the Lumberjacks to spring the upset? Not likely.
6-Arizona State*
11-Temple
This game might just be a three-point shooting contest. Both teams shoot a fair number of threes, and both play with fairly compact defenses. The two are similar in other ways, as well – taking care of the ball, rebounding better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Perhaps one of the stars – James Harden or Dionte Christmas – will take over, but barring that, it’s just gonna be who’s feeling it from deep. Temple seems a bit too dependent on just Christmas, so I’ll go with ASU, who has a few different guys who can get hot.
7-Clemson
10-Michigan*
Tough game to call. Michigan shoots a lot of 3s, but they don’t make a high percentage of them. When in doubt, they chuck. Ironically, Clemson’s full-court pressure defense may allow them to get easy baskets and cleaner looks from outside. But the question is whether their ballhandling is good enough to withstand the pressure without turning it over. There’s no one in the Big Ten who plays this style, so it’s hard to know.
For Clemson’s part, they’ve struggled a bit since the nearly 30-point pasting of Duke midway through the conference season. Perhaps their up-tempo pace is causing fatigue late in the season. Against Michigan, they might find their groove, as Michigan is not a great defensive team, particularly inside. Clemson should have a big advantage on the offensive boards. I don’t have the utmost confidence in their ability to run their halfcourt offense, and this question, along with Michigan’s ability to handle the pressure, should decide the game. I’ll take Michigan in this pick ‘em.
2-Oklahoma*
15-Morgan State
It could happen. After a period of irrational speculation, Oklahoma’s stock has crashed, even with Blake Griffin’s return.
16-Radford
Sadly, Big Art Parakhouski’s run will be coming to an end.
8-LSU
9-Butler*
This blog is nothing if not committed to the proposition that the SEC sucks. But this is a tough game to call. Butler is a fine team, and what Brad Stevens has done with such a youthful squad is incredibly impressive. In a couple years, they could be a top 10-15 team. Right now, they’re a mildly overrated team that lost games to Loyola-Chicago and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. But they go up against an LSU team that’s lost 3 of 4 and has struggled to contain opposing post players. Matt Howard is not the greatest post presence in the country, but neither were AJ Ogilvy and Korvotney Barber, and they ate up LSU’s inside defense.
On the other hand, Butler’s defense is stronger inside the arc than outside, which is where LSU can do some damage, with 3-point gunners Bo Spencer and Marcus Thornton. And while Butler likes to take a lot of threes themselves, LSU’s defense tends to shut that down. And yet …
Earlier in this decade, I developed a simple philosophy in making NCAA picks: never overestimate the Pac-10. That should be our operative maxim for the SEC this week.
5-Illinois
12-Western Kentucky*
This is a possible upset pick, in part becaues of the Hilltoppers’ upset win last year, in part because of Illinois’ anemic offense, and in part because of Chester Frazier’s injury. My head is not completely convinced, given the way Illinois completely shuts down opposing offenses (especially the three-point shot that Western Kentucky loves to take), and given the Hilltoppers’ own so-so D. But my heart is taken by the prospect of Illinois missing Frazier’s leadership, Western Kentucky pounding the offensive glass, and the Illini’s scoring trouble keeping it close throughout. I’ll go with the conventional upset pick.
4-Gonzaga*
13-Akron
Gonzaga is loved by computer rankings, but not by my eyes. I don’t know that we’ll find out who’s right, as both of us predict they’ll get to the Sweet 16 before going down to UNC.
3-Syracuse*
14-Stephen Austin
After playing essentially five games in four days, Syracuse must be tired. But tired enough for the Lumberjacks to spring the upset? Not likely.
6-Arizona State*
11-Temple
This game might just be a three-point shooting contest. Both teams shoot a fair number of threes, and both play with fairly compact defenses. The two are similar in other ways, as well – taking care of the ball, rebounding better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Perhaps one of the stars – James Harden or Dionte Christmas – will take over, but barring that, it’s just gonna be who’s feeling it from deep. Temple seems a bit too dependent on just Christmas, so I’ll go with ASU, who has a few different guys who can get hot.
7-Clemson
10-Michigan*
Tough game to call. Michigan shoots a lot of 3s, but they don’t make a high percentage of them. When in doubt, they chuck. Ironically, Clemson’s full-court pressure defense may allow them to get easy baskets and cleaner looks from outside. But the question is whether their ballhandling is good enough to withstand the pressure without turning it over. There’s no one in the Big Ten who plays this style, so it’s hard to know.
For Clemson’s part, they’ve struggled a bit since the nearly 30-point pasting of Duke midway through the conference season. Perhaps their up-tempo pace is causing fatigue late in the season. Against Michigan, they might find their groove, as Michigan is not a great defensive team, particularly inside. Clemson should have a big advantage on the offensive boards. I don’t have the utmost confidence in their ability to run their halfcourt offense, and this question, along with Michigan’s ability to handle the pressure, should decide the game. I’ll take Michigan in this pick ‘em.
2-Oklahoma*
15-Morgan State
It could happen. After a period of irrational speculation, Oklahoma’s stock has crashed, even with Blake Griffin’s return.
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