Oh No! I Have S-Curve-y!

So figuring out the bubble right now, especially in light of possible stolen bids, would almost certainly make my brain feel like Jonny Flynn's legs right now. USC? Temple? Duquesne? Baylor? Michigan? Auburn? The only thing I know for sure right now is that Maryland has clearly played their way in by beating Wake. That's why I'm focusing on the top lines, which, unfortunately, doesn't seem that much easier.  

Let's talk 1 seeds. Obviously this discussion has become more muddled this week. UNC and Pitt remain locks. But UConn's epic loss to Syracuse means that not one but two of the 1-seeds are up for debate this week. I think the spots go to two of these four teams: Louisville, UConn, Memphis, Michigan State. Of those, Louisville is most in control of its seed, as a win tonight over what has to be a gassed Syracuse team could lock them into the top line. Louisville's potentially withering press and relatively easy path to the title game present probably the worst possible scenario for Syracuse right now, but at this point I'm not going to put anything past the 'Cuse in the Garden.

Right now, Michigan State's 13 wins vs. the top 50 and 7th ranked strength of schedule are making their statistical case pretty strong. I think a Big Ten tourney title might put them on the top line, though I'm not sure they are actually that good a team. 

Memphis has been getting some love for a 1 seed (finally) with all the losses by top-seeded teams this week. At 30-3, and with arguably the best defense in the country, they also present a strong case. While the committee has been known to take stock of injuries (think Cincinnati dropping to the 2 line in 2000 because of Kenyon Martin's broken leg) in the past, it's unclear whether they would take into account a change in a team like Tyreke Evans' move to the point. With shaky play at the point early in the season, the Tigers suffered close, easily winnable losses to Xavier (neutral court) and at Georgetown, and a slightly more decisive loss at home to Syracuse. Since Evans has moved to the point, the Tigers are undefeated, and clobbered Gonzaga in a true road game. Demolishing Houston with prejudice yesterday served as a nice contrast to other underachieving top-level teams. As a Memphis die-hard, I'm skeptical we'll get credit for things like that, but we'll see. I mean, all we've done is win more games in a 4-year period than anyone ever.  Incidentally, I'm not sure we would even want a 1-seed, as it would mean getting shipped out to Glendale for the second weekend. I'd almost rather have the 2 in Indianapolis or Boston. The same might be said for Louisville and MSU. Alright, rant over.

Ok, enough discussion. On Monday night my list looked like this. 

1 Seeds: 1. Pitt 2. North Carolina 3. Uconn 4. Louisville

2 Seeds: 5. Oklahoma 6. Kansas 7. Michigan State 8. Memphis

3 Seeds: 9. Duke 10. Villanova 11. Wake Forest 12. Missouri

As of Saturday at noon, here is my best guess regarding the top 12 seeds for the Dance:

1 Seeds: 1. North Carolina 2. Pitt 3. Louisville 4. UConn

2 Seeds: 5. Michigan State 6. Memphis 7. Oklahoma 8. Kansas

3 Seeds: 9. Duke 10. Villanova 11. Missouri 12. Wake Forest

I think Kansas has a tenuous hold on a 2 seed. Duke's threat to take a 2 has only gotten stronger with Kansas' loss to Baylor, and they might even take a 2 if they just make it to the ACC final. 

Ok, I'm now planted in front of the TV (currently watching Memphis-Tulsa) for the day, so I might post some quick hitters as things progress. GO TIGERS.