S-Curves in all the Right Places

Cue the Barry White music.  It's time to figure out the sexiest seeds.  I think the top seed lines are going to be really interesting to watch this Sunday. The biggest question is whether the committee will put three Big East teams in the top line.  But seeding the next 2 lines will also be difficult to order.  Here I am going to lay out where I think the top 12 teams in the tournament will be seeded, and discuss how Championship Week could affect scenarios. 

1 Seeds: 1. Pitt 2. North Carolina 3. Uconn 4. Louisville

2 Seeds: 5. Oklahoma 6. Kansas 7. Michigan State 8. Memphis

3 Seeds: 9. Duke 10. Villanova 11. Wake Forest 12. Missouri

Man, that 3 seed line was impossible to decide on.  'Nova, Wake, and Mizzou all have some pretty shameful losses. I basically put them in reverse order of accumulated shame, and, now, looking at it, in descending order of conference strength.  

What could change this week?  Well, pretty much everything.  With respect to North Carolina, pretty much every team in the ACC has proven that they can take one any other team in the ACC on a given night.  That is, they've all shown they can have bad nights against inferior teams (that means you, Georgia Tech), and have good nights against superior teams.  Whereas I feel like the Big Ten is a league of coaches, the ACC this year is a league of players, and most ACC teams have a player who are capable of taking over any game they play in.  I think North Carolina has to win the tournament to claim the overall number 1. Otherwise they're locked into the overall 2.  Duke is a threat to move up a line and displace Memphis if they win the ACC tournament.  I think the ACC tourney could turn into an awesome free-for-all.  Those rivalries run intense and deep.  

The Big East tournament could scramble everything.  Pitt or UConn would have to lose their first games to jeopardize their place I believe.  Whatever the result of a possible Big East Championship matchup, I think Pitt's decisive sweep of UConn carries the day.  Even if Pitt and UConn lose their first game, UNC  would have to win the ACC tourney to leapfrog Pitt.   If Louisville wins the Big East tourney, they would probably leapfrog UConn for the overall 3 with the combination of regular season and tourney titles in the toughest conference in memory. Damn, Big East tourney will be awesome.  

So, can Oklahoma sneak onto the top line?  I think at the moment their resume and Lousiville's are pretty much equivalent, so I gave Louisville the edge because of a tougher schedule/conference.  A Louisville choke in the Big East tourney might give the committee the opening it needs to put OU on the top line, where they could hope for no better than the overall number 4. Kansas and Michigan State are pretty much set.  Kansas gets the nod for winning the Big 12 regular season, which was better than the Big Ten. I think conference quality would prevent the committee from putting Memphis ahead of either. 

As I said earlier, Duke lurks, waiting for a chance to take Memphis' spot on the 2 line.  An ACC tourney championship might just do it.  Ugh.  All I can hope for is that the committee gives Memphis credit for its outstanding defensive numbers, its consistency and absolute pasting of Gonzaga on the road.  That was sweet. 

Who else could sneak onto the 3 line? If Washington adds a Pac-10  tourney title to its regular season championship, the committee might be willing to give them credit for that.  As of now, Villanova's resume is clearly superior.   I don't think Gonzaga has a prayer of breaking into the 3 line.  And that's about it. The top 13 teams are fairly clear right now, but the order they will be placed in is certainly up for some reshuffling.  

So why did I do this now?  Because, F the NBA, I love this game.