West Region: First Round Previews (and Picks)

1-Uconn*
16-Chattanooga

I guess you never know with UConn, but don’t count on it.

8-BYU*
9-Texas A&M

Strangely enough, this is a rematch of an 8-9 game from last year. I watched the last BYU-Utah game and was pretty impressed with BYU’s pure version of the motion offense, which takes care of the ball and works for good shots. They’ve got the personnel for it, a bunch of guys of average height who are basically interchangeable. (6-7 swingman Lee Cummard is a poor man’s Terrence Williams, a real stat sheet stuffer. He can shoot from anywhere, grab boards, hand out assists, and block shots.) BYU is a fairly stout defensive team as well.

The last time A&M played a motion offense like this was this past weekend – when they lost to Texas Tech. In fact, every time they played the Red Raiders this year, they gave up more than a point per possession. That’s not to say the Aggies are going to roll over here. They beat the Cougars last year, and they’ve finished strong this season, getting better as the season goes on. They are great at getting to the free throw line, and with their size advantage, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them there quite a bit on Thursday.

The March will have the privilege of watching this game in person. It should be a fun one, but at the end of the day, I expect a BYU win.

5-Purdue*
12-Northern Iowa

Purdue can defend with the best of them, and I expect the Boilers to shut down Northern Iowa on that end of the court. The question is whether Purdue can score. UNI’s defense isn’t great, but they tend to pack it in and force you to beat them from outside. With Robbie Hummel healthy and in good form, the Boilers probably have enough to do get it done offensively, but they never have a lot of margin for error on that end.

4-Washington*
13-Mississippi State

The likeliest 4-13 upset. Washington attacks the basket, gets to the free throw line, pounds the offensive glass, and generally gets its points inside. Mississippi State, however, has the best shot-blocker in the country in Jarvis Varnado (yes, better than Hasheem Thabeet) patrolling the paint. That said, MSU doesn’t rebound well, and I’d expect the Huskies’ offense to survive on offensive boards. Expect a lot of putbacks for Jon Brockman. At the other end, Mississippi State is a very three-point oriented team. Washington has a mediocre three-point percentage defense, but they also don’t allow a lot of three-point attempts, period.

Throw in the intangibles – MSU coming off of four games in four days, Washington playing so close to home – and the Huskies have the edge. But an upset here wouldn’t surprise me.

3-Missouri*
14-Cornell

It’s pronounced Colonel. It’s the highest rank in the military.

I don’t give Andy Bernard’s boys much of a chance here. Missouri’s “40 minutes of hell” defense (which is actually more selective than that) is going to give Cornell problems, forcing turnovers, exposing an athleticism deficit, and taking them away from the three-point shot.

6-Marquette
11-Utah State*

This game has serious upset potential. Utah State sports one of the most efficient offenses in the country, with two capable post players complemented by a trio of shooters. I don’t know how Marquette plans to defend them, but what they probably should do is apply a lot of ball pressure to choke off the three-point shot and harass the entry pass, and front the post (as they’ve done against other teams). Offensively, Marquette does most of its damage inside the arc and from the free throw line. This isn’t a bad matchup for the Aggies, who tend to pack it in and don’t foul, though I’m not sure if they can keep up with the athleticism of Jerel McNeal and Lazar Hayward. This game could turn on Marquette’s three-point shooting, which is sometimes prolific, sometimes cold.

The intangibles here favor an upset. First of all, the game is being played in Boise, Idaho, which is likely to create a virtual home court atmosphere. Yes, tip time is 10:30 am Utah time, but it’s 11:30 am Wisconsin time, which isn’t much better. And Marquette will be forced to roll out and ball after a much longer trip. Second, while Marquette hasn’t been terrible since Dominic James went down to a foot injury, losing four out of five (to tough competition) has to take a mental toll.

In 2005, I thought the Aggies would upset Arizona in the first round, in part because of the location of the game, but they didn’t. So I ought to learn my lesson, right? Nah.

7-California
10-Maryland*

Cal has the best 3-point percentage of any team in the country. And yet, they take very few threes, ranking in the bottom 10% in all of Division I. Are they foolishly not playing to their strengths, or is the high percentage a function of good shot selection? Whatever the case, the overall product is ranked number 11 in the country in offensive efficiency. It’s hard to argue with that. It’s a different story defensively where the Bears struggle to force missed shots or turnovers.

As for Maryland, I have no idea how Gary Williams does it. This team is basically Greivis Vasquez and a collection of guys from the local YMCA. Vasquez is a matchup problem for Cal’s guards, and since moving to the point, has made Maryland a much stronger offensive team.

I’ve had a harder time making up my mind on this game than on any other first round matchup that I’ve previewed so far. I suspect it’ll come down to a simple question – will Cal make shots? I’ll guess no and further guess that Gary Williams will pull another coaching rabbit out of a hat, and that Greivis Vasquez will put on a show.

2-Memphis*
15-Cal State Northridge

The best defense in the country isn’t about to get rolled by Cal State Northridge.