Sweet Sixteen Preview: East and West

It's time to get back in the saddle.

After a few days off to catch a breath and reflect on the chalkfest that was the first two rounds of this year's Tournament, it's time to look forward to the orgy of high-level hoops that is coming our way over the next 96 hours. While I'm as disappointed about the lack of Cinderellas in this year's Sweet 16 (no, Arizona doesn't count), the advancement of the consensus top teams in the country should give us some terrific matchups this weekend. Let's preview what's on tap Thursday night.

Pittsburgh vs. Xavier - The big story off the court is Sean Miller leading Xavier against his his alma mater. (Trivia note: Miller was the guy who passed the ball to Jerome Lane for the backboard-breaking dunk that caused Bill Raftery to utter the now-famous words for the first time: "Send it in, Jerome!") And Miller may find himself back at Pitt if Arizona can manage to lure Jamie Dixon away.

Human interest aside, this should be an interesting matchup of two teams that play a similar defensive style. Both teams employ variants of the packline defense, which is pretty much what it sounds like - packing all your off-ball defenders within an imaginary line inside the arc. The goal is to prevent advancement of the ball towards the basket rather than to pressure the ball. As a result, both teams are much better at defending inside and rebounding the ball than they are at defending the three-point shot and generating turnovers. Xavier, though, is in a better position to take advantage of Pitt than vice versa, because the Musketeers are a better 3-point shooting team.

Pitt's offensive strength - inside - runs right into Xavier's packline. But it's not enough to say that Xavier generally defends well inside. Generalities often fall by the wayside when you're talking about exceptional cases, and Dejuan Blair is an exceptional case. Let's not forget his utter abuse of Hasheem Thabeet, who is a one-man packline defense all by himself. And when Blair isn't clicking, it seems that either Levance Fields and the cadre of Pitt's reserve guards, or Sam Young, are.

I suspect Pitt will come out on top, but the only sure thing is that this game is going to be a physical slugfest.

UConn vs. Purdue - Despite being an IU fan, I'm rooting for Purdue to represent the Big Ten well. But this is going to be a tough one.

Purdue is a great defensive team, and it wouldn't surprise me if they found a way to slow down UConn's multi-pronged offensive attack. But Purdue has struggled to score points all year, and going up against the Thabeet-led Huskies defense is not going to make things any easier. Down the stretch against Washington, the Boilers relied heavily on attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. That's just not going to work against UConn, which has one of the most efficient and least foul-prone interior defenses in the country. The shots will have to fall for the Boilers, and that means Hummel, Grant, and Moore will have to get hot. Jajuan Johnson has definitely improved this year, but it's asking a lot for him to get it done against Thabeet.

Let me also take this opportunity to say a word or two about AJ Price. He was, as Srinivas mentioned below, outstanding this past weekend. But frankly, he's been that way all year. Price has a certain quality that is ideal for a point guard, a quality that Levance Fields shares to an extent. That is, he manages to quietly run the offense and set up his teammates for large stretches of the game, and then suddenly, when the team most needs it, he will start lighting it up from 3, attacking the basket to great effect, and getting to the free throw line. He has great poise and just doesn't get rattled. For all the hype Thabeet gets, Price is undoubtedly the most valuable players on this team.

Duke vs. Villanova - This is probably the Sweet 16 game that I am most looking forward to.

I think Villanova has a real shot to knock off the March's most hated college basketball team. It starts with a very balanced offensive attack. Their win over UCLA featured six players in double digits. They have a lot of guards who can both attack the basket and finish or step back and hit the 3. And Dante Cunningham has emerged as well-balanced offensive threat in his own right, able to score inside through sheer grit, but also highly effective with a mid-range jumper.

The biggest question for this game is how they will handle Duke's ball pressure and denial defense. In theory, they've got the quick, athletic guards that you need to drive right past the pressure and to the hoop. But the Cats don't always play smart, and they can be turnover prone. They got hammered by West Virginia, who plays a similar defensive style, by 20-plus points. If they keep their calm and rely on their quickness, they will be able to exploit the driving lanes created by Duke's defense and finish or pass for open shots. If they can do that and take advantage of Duke's poor defensive rebounding, they will put up a lot of points.

The second biggest question for this game is how Duke will shoot the ball from deep. On average, Villanova's opponents take a remarkable 41% of their shots from beyond the arc. Don't believe me? If you have any doubt about Villanova's vulnerability to the long-range shot, go watch the first 30 minutes of their game against American. Duke has been so-so shooting the ball this year. If they can knock down the 3 and take advantage of Villanova's propensity to foul, they'll put up a lot of points themselves.

So that's it. Villanova's poise and intelligence against the pressure defense (and to a lesser extent, offensive rebounding) and Duke's three-point shooting (and to a lesser extent, ability to get to the free throw line). How those factors play out will tell the story.

Memphis vs. Missouri - I heard a rumor that they're scrapping the pre-game national anthem for a very special appearance from Quin Snyder, who will be "Eye of the Tiger" at center court in only the way he can. (If you know, you know. If you don't, find out. Trust me, you won't regret it.)

This will be an interesting stylistic matchup. The way Memphis has been playing defense, it'll be hard for Missouri to get much going out of the halfcourt offense. Which means they'll be more dependent on generating offense off of turnovers than usual. Which brings us to the most important factor in this game: Can Memphis handle the heat of Missouri's "40 minutes of hell" defense?

"40 minutes of hell," a term first coined by Mike Anderson's mentor, Nolan Richardson, when he implemented the full-court pressing style at Arkansas, is actually a bit overstaed for this Missouri team. They are more selective with the full-court pressure than, say, Clemson. But that's not to say that it's not a critical component of what they do. Their defensive success depends significantly on generating turnovers. The bottom line is if Memphis' guards - not just freshman Tyreke Evans, but senior Antonio Anderson and others - can handle it, they should get some easy buckets breaking the press and win comfortably. If they can't, and Missouri is able to generate turnovers, it could be a frustrating night for some folks around here.