Lots of potential upsets in this quarter of the bracket.
1-Pittsburgh*
16-East Tennessee State
East Tennessee State was underseeded, and they’re not happy about it. The good news for Pitt is that after their early exit in the Big East tournament, I suspect they’ll be focused like a laser. As long as the Panthers don’t take their opposition lightly, they should be fine.
8-Oklahoma State*
9-Tennessee
The SEC sucks. Seriously, Tennessee is not a very good team, and Oklahoma State is really coming along late in the season. I feel good about the Cowboys here.
5-Florida State
12-Wisconsin*
Statistically, this is the most even of the 5-12 matchups. In fact, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin ahead of Florida State. On top of that, you’ve got Bo Ryan matching coaching wits with Leonard Hamilton, which isn’t much of a contest. FSU’s first tourney trip in years has the feel of a quick exit.
Although FSU has played some good defense, I think Wisconsin will get its share of points. They take and make a fair number of threes, and that’s what FSU’s defense tends to allow. The Seminoles have a strong interior D, but Wisconsin’s swing offense will tend to take FSU’s bigs away from the basket.
On the other end of the floor, despite undergoing a revolution almost overnight midway through the Big Ten season, Wisconsin’s defense still seems vulnerable to quick, athletic guards. Enter Toney Douglas, the one-man-quick-athletic-guard wrecking crew. Can Travon Hughes handle the assignment? It’s a tough call. Florida State may make me look like a fool, but I’m gonna say yes and go with the Badgers.
4-Xavier
13-Portland State*
There’s something happening here. What it is, ain’t exactly clear.
Actually it’s quite clear. Portland State has a star senior point guard and a three-point oriented offense that is perfect to attack Xavier’s pack-line defense. On the other end of the ball, Portland State has a mediocre defense, but what they do best is defend the three-point line (which is where Xavier thrives) generate turnovers (which is Xavier’s big offensive weakness), and avoid fouls (getting to the foul line is what Xavier does best). Xavier will probably beat them about on the boards, but there are lots of ingredients here for an upset.
Oh, and the game is in Boise. What the hell, let’s take a flyer on these Vikings.
3-Villanova*
14-American
This is turning into my upset bracket, and American has a non-trivial chance of joining the club. They shoot the three well, frequently a key ingredient in low seed upsets, especially so against team like Villanova that doesn’t shut down the area beyond the arc. They can also defend a bit inside. But all in all, it’s hard to see the Patriot League champs winning on what is essentially Nova’s home court. The Wildcats have a lot of weapons and a very balanced offense, and they get after it defensively as well. I really like this Villanova for reasons that – shockingly enough – I can’t entirely explain. In any event, playing at home should keep them focused enough to get past American.
6-UCLA*
11-VCU
VCU is a real upset threat, but I’m not sure this is the ideal matchup. UCLA is probably underseeded, given how efficient their offense is (more than a point per possession in every game this year but two). It’s an offense that’s more than capable of exploiting VCU’s so-so 3-point defense and rebounding. That said, UCLA’s defense has been quite underwhelming this year, and VCU could return the favor. So perhaps we’re looking at a high-scoring shootout. I’m going to stick with the Bruins, though an upset wouldn’t surprise anyone, me included.
7-Texas*
10-Minnesota
I expect a battle under the basket between these two very similar squads. Offensively and defensively, both teams are stronger in the paint than they are outside. Both are stronger rebounding the offensive glass than their own. And both teams have struggled to win away from home. I love Tubby Smith and think he’s done a phenomenal job this year. But the Longhorns have more talent and experience, and that may resolve this stylistic wash. AJ Abrams, in particular, is the kind of difference-maker that Minnesota lacks.
2-Duke*
15-Binghamton
We all like to make fun of Duke, but don’t underestimate these guys They work hard out there, and you have to respect that.
1-Pittsburgh*
16-East Tennessee State
East Tennessee State was underseeded, and they’re not happy about it. The good news for Pitt is that after their early exit in the Big East tournament, I suspect they’ll be focused like a laser. As long as the Panthers don’t take their opposition lightly, they should be fine.
8-Oklahoma State*
9-Tennessee
The SEC sucks. Seriously, Tennessee is not a very good team, and Oklahoma State is really coming along late in the season. I feel good about the Cowboys here.
5-Florida State
12-Wisconsin*
Statistically, this is the most even of the 5-12 matchups. In fact, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin ahead of Florida State. On top of that, you’ve got Bo Ryan matching coaching wits with Leonard Hamilton, which isn’t much of a contest. FSU’s first tourney trip in years has the feel of a quick exit.
Although FSU has played some good defense, I think Wisconsin will get its share of points. They take and make a fair number of threes, and that’s what FSU’s defense tends to allow. The Seminoles have a strong interior D, but Wisconsin’s swing offense will tend to take FSU’s bigs away from the basket.
On the other end of the floor, despite undergoing a revolution almost overnight midway through the Big Ten season, Wisconsin’s defense still seems vulnerable to quick, athletic guards. Enter Toney Douglas, the one-man-quick-athletic-guard wrecking crew. Can Travon Hughes handle the assignment? It’s a tough call. Florida State may make me look like a fool, but I’m gonna say yes and go with the Badgers.
4-Xavier
13-Portland State*
There’s something happening here. What it is, ain’t exactly clear.
Actually it’s quite clear. Portland State has a star senior point guard and a three-point oriented offense that is perfect to attack Xavier’s pack-line defense. On the other end of the ball, Portland State has a mediocre defense, but what they do best is defend the three-point line (which is where Xavier thrives) generate turnovers (which is Xavier’s big offensive weakness), and avoid fouls (getting to the foul line is what Xavier does best). Xavier will probably beat them about on the boards, but there are lots of ingredients here for an upset.
Oh, and the game is in Boise. What the hell, let’s take a flyer on these Vikings.
3-Villanova*
14-American
This is turning into my upset bracket, and American has a non-trivial chance of joining the club. They shoot the three well, frequently a key ingredient in low seed upsets, especially so against team like Villanova that doesn’t shut down the area beyond the arc. They can also defend a bit inside. But all in all, it’s hard to see the Patriot League champs winning on what is essentially Nova’s home court. The Wildcats have a lot of weapons and a very balanced offense, and they get after it defensively as well. I really like this Villanova for reasons that – shockingly enough – I can’t entirely explain. In any event, playing at home should keep them focused enough to get past American.
6-UCLA*11-VCU
VCU is a real upset threat, but I’m not sure this is the ideal matchup. UCLA is probably underseeded, given how efficient their offense is (more than a point per possession in every game this year but two). It’s an offense that’s more than capable of exploiting VCU’s so-so 3-point defense and rebounding. That said, UCLA’s defense has been quite underwhelming this year, and VCU could return the favor. So perhaps we’re looking at a high-scoring shootout. I’m going to stick with the Bruins, though an upset wouldn’t surprise anyone, me included.
7-Texas*
10-Minnesota
I expect a battle under the basket between these two very similar squads. Offensively and defensively, both teams are stronger in the paint than they are outside. Both are stronger rebounding the offensive glass than their own. And both teams have struggled to win away from home. I love Tubby Smith and think he’s done a phenomenal job this year. But the Longhorns have more talent and experience, and that may resolve this stylistic wash. AJ Abrams, in particular, is the kind of difference-maker that Minnesota lacks.
2-Duke*
15-Binghamton
We all like to make fun of Duke, but don’t underestimate these guys They work hard out there, and you have to respect that.
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