The Final S-Curve

Ok, there's no more data to process about the Top 12 seeds. North Carolina doesn't lose anything for losing without Ty Lawson.  The big change is Duke taking the ACC tourney title, and I think that get's them way up on the 2 line and bumps Kansas. UConn vs. Memphis for the last 1 is a tossup, but even though I (and Thom Brennan) think Memphis is playing some very good ball right now, UConn's strength of schedule will trump Memphis' case, and UConn loses nothing as compared to Memphis for losing in the college basketball game of the decade, if not the last 25 years.  Louisville has moved into a solid grip on the overall 2 spot with a Big East tourney title. So here's my final guess at the Top 12 teams in this year's tournament, which could be a wild wild ride. 

1 seeds:  

1. North Carolina (Boston regional) 
2. Louisville (Memphis regional) 
3. Pitt (Indianapolis regional) 
4. UConn (Glendale regional)

2 seeds: 5. Memphis 6. Duke 7. Michigan State 8. Oklahoma

3 seeds: 9. Kansas 10. Missouri 11. Villanova 12. Wake Forest

The changing order of the 1 seeds matters for geographic preference purposes. The committee said it would take travel costs into account when sorting teams into regions, but we'll see how the tug between thatconsideration and the S-Curve plays out. UConn falling to the back of the 1-seed pack theoretically means they lose out when it comes to geographic priority. Someone has to get sent out west. Will travel costs affect that consideration? Probably not considering (as Jim Calhoun let everyone know) UConn has a healthy budget for its program. The travel cost announcement, I think, was mostly for smaller schools with much tighter budgets. So, there it is. 

Let's get this Billy Packer-less party started!