The State of the Bubble Nation: T-Minus 30 Hours

UPDATE: This has been edited to include USC, whom I mistakenly excluded.

It's tight on this fence since them young dudes are muscling in.

Here's an update on where things stand after Friday's action, where the major developments were: (1) big wins for Maryland, San Diego State, Temple, and Auburn, (2) losses for Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Penn State, Florida, and South Carolina, and (3) Xavier and Dayton crashing out of the A-10 touranment, which means that either Temple or Duquesne is going to steal an at-large bid.

The Locks

The following teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments (listed by conference). This list is unchanged from yesterday.

• ACC (6): UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
• Big East (7): Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
• Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota


• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M


• PAC-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
• SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
• Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• C-USA (1): Memphis
• Horizon (1): Butler

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids. Assuming that each of the above conference tournaments (except for the Horizon and A-10) is won by one of the 37 locks listed above, 8 will win automatic bids, and 29 will win at-large bids. That leaves 5 at-large bids up for grabs. Who's in contention to grab these remaining 5 bids? I've identified 17 bubble teams, listed below by conference:

ACC (2):

• Maryland (RPI 51, SOS 30, 4-6 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Huge win for the Terps against Wake Forest on Friday. They've still got a so-so RPI, but with wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, and Wake, they look strong. Lean IN.



• Virginia Tech (RPI 63, SOS 19, 2-9 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - The Hokies came up just short againts a Lawson-less UNC yesterday. With the low RPI, just two top 50 wins, a pair of bad losses, and a weak record down the stretch, the Hokies look NIT-bound. Lean OUT.

Big East (1):

• Providence (RPI 65, SOS 49, 2-7 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs RPI 100+) – The 11-point win against lowly Depaul and the 22 point drubbing at the hands of Louisville didn’t help Providence’s chances. The Friars are now on the outside looking in. Lean OUT.

Big Ten (2):

• Wisconsin (RPI 46, SOS 17, 4-10 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - The loss to Ohio State yesterday and the developments elsewhere have Wisconsin in a very precarious position. Their RPI has plummeted this week, and their top 50 record is very so-so. Their 7-3 record down the stretch is a boost, but Wisconsin cannot feel safe at all. Lean IN.



• Penn State (RPI 69, SOS 90, 6-9 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – Penn State's loss to Purdue, coupled with big wins by Maryland and San Diego state (see above and below) means the Nittany Lions remain squarely on the bubble. They’ve got a low RPI, but 6 wins against RPI top 50 in a power conference. That's usually enough to boost a low RPI team into the Tourney, but what has happened (and will happen) elsewhere on the Bubble might squeeze Penn State out. Even Odds.

Pac-10 (1):

• Arizona (RPI 58, SOS 29, 6-10 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – As with Penn State, despite the low RPI, 6 wins against top 50 RPI teams is usually enough to bootstrap your way into the Tournament. Plus Arizona has some very nice wins non-conference wins against Kansas and Gonzaga. The big problem here is the 1-4 regular season finish and the atrocious road record. These are important factors for the selection committee. This thing could go either way. Even Odds.



• USC (RPI 43, SOS 20, 4-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Two Pac-10 tourney wins over Cal and UCLA, and suddenly USC has played its way onto the Bubble. Despite the pretty good RPI and four top 50 wins, I don't think the Trojans have worked their way into the field yet. They finished the regular season 6-9 and have 3 bad losses. It wouldn't surprise me if they made the field, but absent a win over Arizona State today (in which case they wouldn't need an at-large bid, because they'll get an auto bid), I think they're out.Lean OUT.

SEC (4):

• Auburn (RPI 57, SOS 68, 2-3 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Improbably, with the win over Florida, Auburn is the SEC's last hope for 3 bids. Not very likely, with the lack of any meaningful non-conference wins and just two top 50 wins. If they beat Tennessee today, they might stand a shot. Lean OUT.



• Florida (RPI 52, SOS 82, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – What rhymes with back-to-back champions? Back-to-back NIT trips! The loss to Auburn yesterday blows the Gators off the Bubble and out. Lean OUT



• South Carolina (RPI 59, SOS 93, 0-4 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) – My anti-Gamecocks mission was finally vindicated with their loss to Mississippi State yesterday. This lousy resume just got worse. Lean OUT.



• Kentucky (RPI 79, SOS 62, 2-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Hahahahhahahaha.OUT.

Mountain West (3):

• San Diego State (RPI 32, SOS 53, 2-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - A very big win by the Aztecs last night against BYU. It was a badly needed top 50 win. With the win against UNLV the day before, the Aztecs have done wonders for their RPI and played themselves into pole position for a bid. Lean IN.



• New Mexico (RPI 67, SOS 79, 3-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – The loss to Wyoming late Thursday probably ended their chances. They had made a strong case with an 8-1 record to close the regular season, including wins against Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. But the loss to Wyoming reinforces the biggest fear about them – they can’t win away from home. I leave them on here because of the late-season form, but if it were up to me, they’d be definitely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.



• UNLV (RPI 65, SOS 81, 4-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – A devastating loss to San Diego State, their third of the season, probably ended their chances. Despite strong non-con wins against Louisville (on the road) and Arizona and a season sweep of BYU, the 8-8 finish to the season – including losses to TCU and Colorado State – will almost certainly keep them out. Lean OUT.

Atlantic-10 (1):

• Temple (RPI 34, SOS 47, 2-5 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. RPI 100+) – Temple got a huge win over Xavier (RPI 15) to keep its at-large hopes alive. Here's the Temple quandary, though - if they beat Duquesne today, they don't need an at-large bid. If they lose, though, that puts a dent in their at-large chances. I'll deal with this peculiar scenario below, but for now, I'm going to list them as: Lean OUT.

West Coast (1):

• St. Mary's (RPI 42, SOS 140, 2-3 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – St. Mary's beat lowly Eastern Washington last night in a last-minute addition to the schedule designed to show off what Patty Mills can do post-injury. He improved his performance over the WCC tournament, scoring 19 points on 6-of-14 shooting (4-for-9 from 3-pt range), but you have to consider the competition. I still think it's hard to ignore the fact that 3 of their 5 losses came with Mills out of the lineup. But with the way things are breaking on the Bubble, it's starting to look really tough for St. Mary's. Even Odds.

Missouri Valley (1):

• Creighton (RPI 41, SOS 111, 3-2 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) – I devoted one long post to Creighton two days ago. For the reasons stated therein: Even Odds.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 23, SOS 135, 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - They will only need an at-large bid IF they win fail to win their conference tournament (their fellow bubble teams will be rooting hard for them). They barely survived New Mexico State last night, but the narrow victory doesn't make them look good. As with Temple, the scenario in which they'd need an at-large bid - a loss in the conference tournament - is the scenario in which they likely don't get one. Precedent isn't on their side. In 2002, they went 25-2 in the regular season, but then lost in their conference tourney, and were denied an at large bid. Close, but I go with: Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

If the "lean in" teams above - Maryland, Wisconsin, San Diego State - take 3 bids, that leaves just 2 left for the following teams: Penn State, Arizona, St. Mary’s, Creighton, and Temple (if they don't win the conference championship today). This is a really tough decision, and frankly, I have no clue how the Committee might decide it. Later today, I'm going to take a look at some more historical data to see how the Committee might break these kinds of logjams, but my sense is that there's no discernible trend that would provide much guidance. I'm going to go with Penn State and Arizona for now (who I ranked above St. Mary's and Creighton yesterday as well). But I reserve the right to change my analysis in the next 30 hours. So my final count, as of now, is as follows:

• ACC (7): UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
• Big East (7): Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
• Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State
• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• PAC-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
• SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee


• Mountain West (3): BYU, Utah, San Diego State
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• C-USA (1): Memphis
• Horizon (1): Butler

Note: The assumption above that all the above conference tourneys that haven’t been decided will be won by at-large locks is a critical one. If Baylor manages to win the Big 12 or Auburn the SEC or Memphis fails to win C-USA or etc, that last team or two could get squeezed out.