The final weekend of the regular season is over, and with only conference tournaments left, it's time to take a breath and review the state of Bubble Nation. Who's leaning in, who's leaning out, and who's right on the fence. In doing this exercise, it's important that we consider the actual numbers at work here. It's no good to sit around talking about someone's Tournament chances in a vacuum, without thinking about how many slots are actually available and how they compare to other teams. This is especially important because a large number of bubble teams have struggled down the stretch this year. Looking at their struggles in a vacuum, it's easy to cast them off, but compared to other similarly middling squads, they still have a shot. Anyway, here's how I see things.The Locks
The following teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments (listed by conference):The Bubble
That's 30 locks. There are 34 at-large bids. But let's assume, for the sake of this exercise, that each of the above conference tournaments is won by one of the locks listed above. (This is an important assumption. We'll take a look later at what happens if this isn't the case at the end.) With this assumption, of the 30 teams above, 11 will win automatic bids through conference tournaments, and 19 will win at-large bids. That leaves 15 at-large bids up for grabs. Who's in contention to grab these remaining 16 bids? I've identified 34 bubble teams, listed below by conference:
ACC (4):
- Boston College (RPI 54, SOS 57, 4-4 vs. top 50, 3 losses v. RPI 100+) - The only things keeping BC on the bubble are its relatively low RPI and its three bad losses, against St. Louis, Harvard, and NC State. But with wins over Duke, UNC, and Florida State down the stretch, they should be in, with room to spare. Strong lean IN.
- Virginia Tech (RPI 59, SOS 28, 2-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Virginia Tech will be hurt by their 1-6 record down the stretch, but it was against a brutal schedule, and the one win was a big one against Clemson. What's most impressive about Virginia Tech, compared to Maryland and Miami, is that their two big Wins (Wake, Clemson) were on the road. The committee has to be impressed by that. The game against Maryland in the ACC tourney could be an elimination game, with the winner punching a ticket, and the loser going to the NIT. Even odds.
- Maryland (RPI 65, SOS 21, 3-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Maryland took a big tumble with a loss at Virginia on Saturday. On the pro side, they've had a tough schedule and notched big wins against Michigan State and North Carolina. On the con side, they finished at just 7-9 in the ACC, and overall, their record against RPI top 50 teams is fairly weak. They've got a huge game against Virginia Tech in the first round of the ACC tournament. Likely, a win gets them in, and a loss leaves them out. Even odds.
- Miami (RPI 51, SOS 23, 2-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Miami's resume looks very similar to Maryland's. They really shot themselves in the foot with a loss at Georgia Tech last week, and the first-round game against NC State is a must win, but might not be enough. Even odds.
Big East (4):
- Providence (RPI 71, SOS 44, 2-8 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs RPI 100+) - Providence squandered a chance to seal the deal against Villanova on Thursday, but losing there is no shame. What's most impressive about the Friars is the lack of bad losses (they did drop the first game of the season to Northeastern, but they're not a bad team). The timing of the marquee win against Pitt - late in the season - should also help. If they beat the winner of Notre Dame and Depaul in the second round of the Big East tournament, they should be able to punch their ticket. If they lose to Notre Dame, they won't be able to rest easy. If they lose to Depaul, there will be a lot of heartburn in Providence. Slight lean IN.
- Cincinnati (RPI 72, SOS 33, 4-9 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - A shocking pair of losses to South Florida and Seton Hall in the last two games of the season have the Bearcats outside looking in. Unlike Georgetown and Notre Dame, they don't have a win more impressive than a defeat of West Virginia. It's not all over for the Bearcats, who could defeat Depaul, Providence, and Louisville to get some more serious consideration, but at this point, it doesn't look good. Lean OUT.
- Georgetown (RPI 47, SOS 3, 4-8 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Believe it or not, I still put Georgetown down here, because I can envision a scenario in which a tourney run that falls short of an auto bid gets them an at-large slot. Frankly, if they had just defeated St. John's last week, I think they would be a lean in, after the big win at Villanova. Their RPI is not bad, and the extremely difficult schedule is sustaining their chances here. If they beat St. John's, Marquette, and Villanova in three days to get to the Big East semis, they deserve a bid. Lean OUT.
- Notre Dame (RPI 73, SOS 36, 3-11 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Alright, I know I'm really stretching it here. But, as with Georgetown, a string of wins against Rutgers, West Virginia, and UConn could put them back in the picture, depending on what happens elsewhere on the bubble. Lean OUT.
- Ohio State (RPI 38, SOS 30, 5-8 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. RPI 100+) - OSU has struggled a bit down the stretch, but they've won the games they should to go along with some nice wins against Butler and Purdue, and a handful of other quality wins. In addition to the 5 against RPI top 50 teams, they've also got non-conference wins against Notre Dame and Miami (FL). The win against Northwestern Sunday likely sealed the deal. A win against Wisconsin on Friday in the Big Ten tournament would be gravy, but the Buckeyes should get in regardless. Strong lean IN.
- Michigan (RPI 42, SOS 10, 6-9 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Michigan probably punched its ticket with the big win on Saturday at Minnesota, which finally showed that they can win an important game on the road. They've got a bunch of quality wins, including some real nice non-conference ones against Duke and UCLA. Losing to Iowa again on Thursday would dent their chances, but they'd probably still make the field. Strong lean IN.
- Wisconsin (RPI 32, SOS 5, 4-9 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Wisconsin's big selling point is the high RPI and SOS. They hit a rough stretch midway through the season, losing six in a row, but they've rebounded down the stretch with wins against Illinois, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. They also have a non-con win against fellow bubble team Virginia Tech. As with Ohio State, winning their matchup on Friday would seal the deal, but even otherwise, I like Bucky's chances. Strong lean IN.
- Minnesota (RPI 41, SOS 38, 5-7 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs RPI 100+) - The home loss to Michigan on Saturday (when they blew a 10-pt lead) really hurt. Minnesota has a solid resume, especially the top-50 RPI record and the big non-con win against Lousiville. But a lot of those wins were earlier in the season, and the Gophers' form down the stretch (3-6) is threatening their chances. They'll need a win against Northwestern on Thursday to feel comfortable. Slight lean IN.
- Penn State (RPI 61, SOS 79, 6-8 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Sigh. Penn State had just about sewn up a bid with the big last second win against Illinois last week. Then they went and lost to Iowa to close out the season. Nittany Lions have a lot of quality wins, especially huge ROAD wins at Michigan State and Illinois, but that stinker down the stretch and an extremely weak non-conference schedule is problematic. A loss to Indiana on Thursday would probably burst their bubble, while a win against the Hoosiers and Purdue in the next round would probably punch their ticket. Just one win in the conference tournament, though, would leave them squarely on the bubble. Even odds.
- Northwestern (RPI 70, SOS 52, 6-9 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Northwestern's resume actually isn't very different from Penn State's. They've got six RPI top 50 wins, including two big ROAD wins at Michigan State and Purdue (similar to Penn State), but a weak non-con schedule. A win against Minnesota on Thursday will keep them in the conversation, but without that, they're probably out. Lean OUT.
Big 12 (3):
- Texas A&M (RPI 29, SOS 43, 4-5 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. RPI 100+) - A&M pretty much punched their ticket with the big win over Missouri on Saturday, which capped a 6-0 run down the stretch. They've also got wins against Texas and Oklahoma State, and LSU and Arizona in non-conference. A loss against Texas Tech on Wednesday might cause some mild concern, but A&M would most likely survive it. Strong lean IN.
- Oklahoma State (RPI 26, SOS 11, 3-9 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. RPI 100+) - OSU suffers for a middling record against RPI top 50 teams. But they benefit from a very high RPI and SOS. And a 6-1 run down the stretch, including wins over Texas and Kansas State, will look pretty good compared to some other bubble teams that have struggled of late. If they take care of business against Iowa State, they'll go dancing. If they don't, they might sweat a little depending on how many at-large spots are available, but more likely than not, they'll be okay. Lean IN.
- Kansas State (RPI 77, SOS 100, 3-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Kansas State has quietly put together a decent resume, with wins against Missouri, Texas, and A&M, a 10-3 record down the stretch, and a fourth place Big 12 finish. The weak RPI and schedule, though, will hurt them. At the moment, their odds aren't good, but if they can win a couple games in the Big 12 tournament, they'll be in the picture. Lean OUT.
Pac-10 (2):
- California (RPI 33, SOS 45, 5-5 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. RPI 100+) - I put Cal down here mostly because of the bad losses, but the solid .500 record against the top 50 and the proven ability to win on the road (Utah, Washington, Arizona) should put them in comfortably, regardless of what happens in the Pac-10 tournament. Strong lean IN.
- Arizona (RPI 52, SOS 32, 5-8 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Arizona has some very nice wins (Kansas, Gonzaga, UCLA, Washington), but two things hurt their chances. The first is a lousy 1-4 finish down the stretch, and the second is an atrocious road record. These are important factors for the selection committee. Arizona's fate may lie in their Pac-10 tourney game against in-state rival Arizona State. Even odds.
- Florida (RPI 49, SOS 85, 2-6 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - The win over Kentucky on Saturday was necessary, but not sufficient. Florida's only win against a sure tournament team was against Washington (the only other top 50 win was a narrow victory in a defensive abomination against South Carolina that I had the misfortune of watching). They've also lost 3 of 4 down the stretch. Even a couple wins in the SEC tournament might not get it done, because they'd be against weak SEC west teams Arkansas and Auburn. They'll probably have to win 3 games to get to the championship game to seal a bid. Even odds.
- South Carolina (RPI 48, SOS 90, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - The Gamecocks have won bupkis. Their only top 50 win was a buzzer-beating finish at fellow bubble team Florida. Coupled with a putrid non-conference schedule, and I don't see a reasonable basis for putting South Carolina in the tournament. But with a reasonable RPI and road wins at Baylor and Kentucky, I can't shake the feeling that the SEC isn't going to get the punishment they deserve this year. Even odds.
- Kentucky (RPI 80, SOS 62, 4-6 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Good night, Kentucky! The Wildcats will try to hang their hat on a season sweep of Tennessee and a legit non-con win against West Virgnia. But the 4 straight season-closing defeats, the losses to VMI and Georgia, the very low RPI, and the so-so schedule should end our long national nightmare of seeing Kentucky in the tournament for each of the past 17 years. Lean OUT.
Mountain West (3):
- New Mexico (RPI 57, SOS 82, 3-4 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. RPI 100+) - Steve Alford's boys have made a strong case for an at-large bid with an 8-1 record down the stretch, including wins against Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. The road record and non-conference results are going to hurt, though, so they might have to get to the MWC tournament chamionship game to confirm their late-season form and convince the committee that they can win outside The Pit. Even odds.
- UNLV (RPI 55, SOS 83, 4-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - UNLV will try to hang its hat on solid non-con wins against Louisville (on the road) and Arizona and a season sweep of BYU. But a 9-7 record in the MWC and losses to TCU and Colorado State aren't impressive. UNLV has a big game against fellow bubble team SDSU in the MWC tourney quarters. That could be an elimination game. Even odds.
- San Diego State (RPI 44, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - The Aztecs have a surprisingly high RPI, but just one top 50 win is going to hurt. They also whiffed against Arizona (RPI 52). They do have a sweep of UNLV, but they will probably have to beat the Rebels for a third time in the first round of the MWC tourney. Even then, they might not make it. Lean OUT.
Atlantic-10 (3):
- Dayton (RPI 23, SOS 91, 4-2 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. RPI 100+) - I put Dayton down here because of the bad losses, but with the very strong RPI and the top 50 record (including wins against Marquette and Xavier), they are pretty close to a lock. Strong lean IN.
- Temple (RPI 40, SOS 50, 1-5 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. RPI 100+) - The RPI is decent (they played a good non-con schedule), but the lack of quality wins and the number of bad losses should keep Temple out of the Dance. If they can get to the A-10 championship game with a semifinal win over Xavier, though, they might have a chance. Lean OUT.
- Rhode Island (RPI 63, SOS 122, 2-5 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. RPI 100+) - The late-season win against Dayton kept the Rams' at-large hopes alive, but then they closed out the season with a loss to UMass at home. The extremely weak schedule and bad losses should conspire to keep them out. Like Temple, they'll probably need to get to the A-10 championship game through Dayton to be considered, and even that probably won't be enough. Lean OUT.
Conference USA (1):
- UAB (RPI 43, SOS 68, 0-5 vs. top 50, 0 bad losses vs. RPI 100+) - UAB blew their chance to get a marquee win against Memphis, falling apart down the stretch (an unsurprising result for those of us who have an unfortunate familiarity with Mike Davis coached teams). The RPI is solid, they don't have any bad losses, and they do have the (crazy, gift of a) win at Arizona, so they're still in the conversation. But I don't see them getting an at-large bid unless they knock off Memphis in the C-USA tourney, and if they do that, it means they've won C-USA's auto bid and don't need an at-large anyway. Lean OUT.
West Coast (1):
- St. Mary's (RPI 50, SOS , 2-2 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - The return of Patty Mills is huge for the Gaels. The committee will take into account the fact that he will be around for the NCAA tournament. The Gaels' 4 conference losses - including the two bad ones and the two top 50 RPI losses to Gonzaga - all came with Mills sidelined. Their nearly-undefeated record with Mills, plus the wins over Providence, San Diego State, and Utah State, should get them an at-large bid. Late last night, they beat Portland to advance to the WCC championship game, but they deserve a bid even if they lose there. Lean IN.
- Creighton (RPI 39, SOS 106, 3-2 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI 100+) - The loss to Illinois State in the MVC tourney semis (after a controversial quarterfinal win) really hurt. The RPI is good as is the 11-1 record down the stretch. But the weak schedule is a big problem. It'll be interesting to see how the committee weighs these conflicting considerations. Lean OUT.
Southern Conference (1):
- Davidson (RPI 67, SOS 176, 1-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI top 100+) - Davidson lost last night in the conference tournament semis, for the second time this year to College of Charleston. As a result, they need an at-large bid to get to the tournament, but it won't be easy to come by. They had a nice squeaker of a win over West Virginia, but the lack of additional quality wins, the weak SOS, and the late-season loss to Butler at home are a set of obstacles that may be too high to overcome. Lean OUT.
I list the following two teams last because of their unusual bubble circumstances. They will only need an at-large bid IF they win fail to win their conference tournaments (their fellow bubble teams will be rooting hard for them).
MAAC (1):
- Siena (RPI 23, SOS 77, 0-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. RPI top 100+) - They have a really high RPI, built on a challenging non-conference schedule. But zero wins against top 50 teams is a big problem. If they don't win the MAAC tournament (a distinct possibility, with a tough Niagara team in second), will the committee reward them for taking on such a tough schedule, despite the lack of wins? It's hard to say. Even odds.
- Utah State (RPI 27, SOS 137, 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 1 loss vs. RPI 100+) - Along with Davidson's loss to Butler, Utah State's loss at St. Mary's may have been the most consequential Bracket Buster result. The event was started precisely to give squads like Utah State an opportunity to prove themselves against other top mid-major squads. But the Aggies blew their chance, losing 74-65 to a Mills-less St. Mary's squad. That, coupled with the generally weak schedule and road losses at Boise State and Nevada late in the year, could have them on the outside looking in. While they have a win over Utah, a really strong RPI, and a gaudy 26-4 record, precedent isn't on their side. In 2002, they went 25-2 in the regular season, but then lost in their conference tourney, and were denied an at large bid. Close, but I go with: Lean OUT.
The Bottom Line
The "lean in" teams above take 11 of the 15 remaining at-large bids, leaving 4 bids, with the following 10 teams best-positioned (for now) to snatch them up - Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, New Mexico, UNLV, and Siena (if they don't win their conference championship). If I had to pick right now, I'd take Virginia Tech, Penn State, Arizona, and UNLV - though I'm not sure the committee would make those choices.
So my final count, as of this morning, is as follows:
I realize that ACC and SEC fans might not be excited about that account, and that the committee might be more sympathetic to their pleas. But that's how I see it, and but for my last four picks, I think that's how the committee would see it.
One final note: What happens if the assumption set forth at the beginning doesn't hold? If the conference tournaments above are won by teams that aren't at-large locks? Well, if it's a bubble team (e.g. St. Mary's), it just moves them to a lock. But if it's a non-bubble team that comes from nowhere and wouldn't otherwise make the tournament (e.g., Georgia last year), then it takes away one of the bids currently available.
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