First, I would be remiss to ignore Penn State's huge win tonight (which I turned on while Talor Battle's layup was bouncing on the rim and in with 0.3 seconds left). I have to admit I haven't been following the Big T(elev)en very closely this year, so I was incredulous when the announcers and Shankar pronounce the Lions pretty much into the tournament. But their non-conference schedule was more solid than I thought it was (in a down year for college hoops), and they didn't suffer any shameful losses in conference (well, getting swept by a blah Wisconsin team isn't so good) while beating MSU and sweeping Illinois. I think their status of their hoops program as a perennial afterthought (both in and out of Happy Valley) tainted my thinking. So I would agree they are leaning in, but losing at Iowa on Saturday could be very damaging, and might leave them having to win some games in the Big Ten tourney to feel comfortable.
Alright, let's get to Saturday games of consequence:
- UConn at Pitt: Apparently Levance Fields is questionable for this game. Does UConn double team Blair because of the game-long bitch-slap he delivered to Thabeet in Hartford? If so, can Pitt win while relying on Sam Young? I don't think Thabeet has the mettle to guard Blair one on one. His blocking prowess comes mainly from his help-side defense on penetrators, not blocking post ups. If UConn wants to contain Blair, I think they have to consider making Adrien the primary defender. If they don't want Adrien to pick up fouls, then Gavin Edwards. Either way that frees Thabeet to block Blair and others as a help-defender. At this point, UConn and Pitt are tossups for the overall 1 seed (barring a scenario I will discuss shortly), with UConn slightly ahead. If Fields plays, the result of game won't change much unless there is a blowout. If Fields doesn't play, then a Pitt win puts UConn solidly behind them; a UConn win wouldn't affect much.
- Louisville at West Virginia: In my opinion, Louisville is peaking, playing the best basketball in the Big East right now. If Terrence Williams had been playing like this all year, he would be almost tied with Blake Griffin in the player of the year race. They also have a 4-guard backcourt rotation that will help during the Big East tournament grind. A solid showing by Louisville could change rumblings of them as a 1-seed into a louder chorus. In a scenario where Louisville wins out (i.e. Big East tourney title), and Pitt and/or UConn loses early and badly in the Big East Tourney (making 2 losses in a week for one of those two), it's possible Louisville could supplant one of them on the 1-seed line.
- Texas at Kansas: Kansas badly needs to reclaim some dignity after getting thumped at Texas Tech. They went into that game a solid 2-seed. A loss to Texas at home could bump them down heading into the Big 12 tourney. Texas really needs this one to feel good heading into the tourney. I'm not sure they can do much to their seeding in this game (probably at this point in the 7 range) because they have some bad losses.
- Georgia Tech at Boston College: BC is the quintessential team that plays to the level of their competition (Harvard bitches!!). Every game they play is a toss-up. They're in the tourney, but a loss here would be pretty damaging.
- Michigan at Minnesota: Basically a Bracket Buster game. I think Minnesota may have the slight edge in terms of position on the bubble, with a win over Louisville to match Michigan's split with Duke. The loser faces a lot of pressure in the conference tournament.
- LSU at Auburn: I just wanted to say LSU's ranking is a farce, travesty, embarrassment, etc. and I hope they lose for the sake of justice. The SEC sucks, and they will be of no consequence in the tournament. No more discussion of the SEC.
- Cal at Arizona State: Arizona State is one of a number of bewildering and inconsistent Pac-10 teams. I think UCLA will the sole Pac-10 team to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. ASU's loss to Stanford tonight is a head scratcher. They seem to let laziness creep into their game a lot. Cal can continue to improve its seeding with a win here.
- Maryland at Virginia: Maryland is like BC. Maddeningly inconsistent, with one player that always makes their games toss-ups. They have bad losses, but not in the usual sense of losses to bad teams (except Georgetown). Rather they didn't bother showing up in any sense in games against Gonzaga, Duke, Carolina, and Clemson. All the other losses are respectable. Losing this could be very damaging, as it would not be respectable in the least.
- DePaul at Georgetown: Georgetown can cement its title over Kentucky for year's most frustrating team for its own fans. Hey, let's win at UConn then lose to Seton Hall and St. John's! I'm mostly mad at them because they're going to break Memphis' multi-year run of not losing to teams who didn't make the tournament.
- Harvard at Yale: F Yale.
And of course....
- Tulane at Memphis: You knew it was coming. I promise this won't be a fawning fan's blog, but this deserves it. Senior Day in Memphis will mark the last regular season game of the winningest players in Memphis history, Robert Dozier and Antonio Anderson. They also have a chance this year to become the winningest players in college basketball history. Those two have never in their college careers NOT advanced to the Elite 8. This game would mark 58 wins in a row in conference play and a third straight undefeated conference regular season. In the C-USA tournament they can move to 2nd all time in consecutive conference wins, ahead of Jerry West's 59 straight at West Virginia and behind Adolph Rupp's record run of 64 at Kentucky. GO TIGERS.
Alright, should be a good Saturday. Sunday preview coming soon. Then....Championship Week! It's the most wonderful time of the yeeeeeeeeeeeeeear.
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