Here are my picks for the first round games in the Midwest Region. (As I'm not interested in previewing hypothetical, nonexistent matchups, I won't be providing this level of detail for later round matchups until they're actually set. However, I may post a full bracket prediction with a more summary analysis for each region.)1-Louisville*
16-Alabama State / Morehead State
I pick Louisville.
8-Ohio State*
9-Siena
Siena’s probably a popular pick after they dismantled Vanderbilt in the first round last year. But I’m not sure how this matchup shakes out for the Saints They like to get their points by attacking the lane, and that’s precisely where OSU’s otherwise-mediocre defense is at its best, with their zone tightening up and BJ Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale swatting shots. OSU is vulnerable to the three-pointer, but that’s not Siena’s game – they neither take a lot of threes nor make a high percentage. The Saints will have to push the transition game to try to get some easy buckets. On the other end, Siena may be able to exploit OSU’s sloppiness with the ball and lack of a solid point guard. But the Saints aren’t a great defensive team in general, and OSU scores a good percentage both inside the arc and out.
On the intangibles front, Siena is, ironically, the more experienced Tournament team. But the Buckeyes will have a nice home-court advantage playing in southwest Ohio. A close call, but I go with OSU.
5-Utah*
12-Arizona
The first thing that leaps out to me about this game is Utah’s 3-point offense and Arizona’s 3-point defense. The Utes shoot a lot of threes, and they make a good percentage lot of threes. Arizona’s defense allows teams to shoot a lot of 3s, and they give up a good percentage on those threes. In fact, 36.3 percent of the point scored against Arizona come from behind the arc – that’s the fifth-highest percentage in the country. This is going to be a problem for the Wildcats, especially in what will likely be a relatively low possession game.
Both teams have been much stronger at home than on the road, so it’ll be interesting to see how they perform a couple thousand miles from home in Miami. This is a popular pick for a 12-5 upset, but I’ll go with Utah.
4-Wake*
13-Cleveland State
Wake Forest is an enigmatic team, sometimes able to beat anyone, sometimes putting up real clunkers. The Demon Deacons’ biggest problem is poor decisionmaking in the halfcourt offense which leads to a lot of turnovers. And guess what Cleveland State does best on defense? Generate turnovers. Their aggressive halfcourt style could cause some problems for Wake Forest. In the end, I think Wake’s size advantage, defense, and ability to get to the free throw line will likely carry the day. Much as I’d like to see an upset here, I think it’s going to tough for the Vikes to pull it off.
3-Kansas*
14-North Dakota State
North Dakota State is underseeded. Since December 1, the Bison have gone 24-4, and their four losses have been by a combined total of 11 points. Two of those losses were to NCAA teams, USC (four-point road loss) and Stephen A. Austin (triple overtime). It’s a senior-laden team that is no stranger to big wins. Three years ago, they won at Wisconsin and two years ago, at Marquette.
But can they beat Kansas? Maybe, but they’ll need to take a lot of threes (which is what Texas Tech did to beat Kansas by almost 20 last week). The Bisons shoot very well from behind the arc (40%) – a place that Kansas doesn’t defend that well – but they don’t typically rely on the three-pointer that much. That will have to change here, because they’re not going to get much going inside.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas is a solid offensive team across the board, with good post players (Aldrich, Morris), a point guard who can beat you inside and out (Collins), slashers (Taylor), and shooters (Reed, Morningstar). And they will beat you in transition to boot. The only thing the Jayhawks have to worry about is sloppiness with the ball, but they’ve held that in check of late. An upset is possible, but given the contrast between Kansas’ high-octane offense and NDSU’s throughly mediocre defense, it’s not very likely.
6-West Virginia*
11-Dayton
In the abstract, I think West Virginia is a much better team, but this is a good matchup for Dayton. The Flyers are a long, athletic team that attacks the basket and feasts on the offensive glass, but doesn’t shoot well. West Virginia has a very good defense, but it’s heavy on ball denial and choking off the 3-point line, which doesn’t respond to Dayton’s strengths. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers don’t rebound the defensive glass that well. The one area where West Virginia’s defensive style might produce dividends is in generating turnovers, as Dayton can be careless with the ball.
On the other end of the floor, West Virginia is an even stronger offensive rebounding team than Dayton, and the Flyers have had gotten dominated on their own glass by similar teams like Xavier. The Mountaineers don’t have the best offense in the country, but it’s been improving, and freshman Devin Ebanks has been blossoming.
Despite the less-than-ideal defensive matchup, I think West Virginia is too good a team, and Bob Huggins too good a coach, for them to lose this game.
7-Boston College
10-USC*
Boston College might deserve the title of “most engimatic team” even more than Wake Forest – they beat UNC and Duke and lost to St. Louis and Harvard. They’ll get the Trojans, a mystery of their own, having swept through the Pac-10 tournament after a middling season, addled by an inability to win away from home.
USC mixes defenses a fair amount. I’m not sure that BC’s offense begs for one look or another. A zone would help contain BC’s dribble penetration and keep them shooting, which they don’t do well, but it would also have BC’s offensive glass-eating forwards licking their chops. Man defense would help with rebounding, but make it harder to contain the drive. At the other end, Demar Derozan is becoming the star he was (unfairly) expected to be all season long. I like USC’s chances of getting to the free throw line and getting second chance points against BC. They’ve had trouble with turnovers, but have generally cut down of late. I’m gonna go with Tim Floyd and the Trojans to continue their fine late-season run.
2-Michigan State*
15-Robert Morris
I’m not terribly impressed with Michigan State this year, but if they can’t get past Robert Morris, their problems are more serious than I thought.
16-Alabama State / Morehead State
I pick Louisville.
8-Ohio State*
9-Siena
Siena’s probably a popular pick after they dismantled Vanderbilt in the first round last year. But I’m not sure how this matchup shakes out for the Saints They like to get their points by attacking the lane, and that’s precisely where OSU’s otherwise-mediocre defense is at its best, with their zone tightening up and BJ Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale swatting shots. OSU is vulnerable to the three-pointer, but that’s not Siena’s game – they neither take a lot of threes nor make a high percentage. The Saints will have to push the transition game to try to get some easy buckets. On the other end, Siena may be able to exploit OSU’s sloppiness with the ball and lack of a solid point guard. But the Saints aren’t a great defensive team in general, and OSU scores a good percentage both inside the arc and out.
On the intangibles front, Siena is, ironically, the more experienced Tournament team. But the Buckeyes will have a nice home-court advantage playing in southwest Ohio. A close call, but I go with OSU.
5-Utah*
12-Arizona
The first thing that leaps out to me about this game is Utah’s 3-point offense and Arizona’s 3-point defense. The Utes shoot a lot of threes, and they make a good percentage lot of threes. Arizona’s defense allows teams to shoot a lot of 3s, and they give up a good percentage on those threes. In fact, 36.3 percent of the point scored against Arizona come from behind the arc – that’s the fifth-highest percentage in the country. This is going to be a problem for the Wildcats, especially in what will likely be a relatively low possession game.
Both teams have been much stronger at home than on the road, so it’ll be interesting to see how they perform a couple thousand miles from home in Miami. This is a popular pick for a 12-5 upset, but I’ll go with Utah.
4-Wake*
13-Cleveland State
Wake Forest is an enigmatic team, sometimes able to beat anyone, sometimes putting up real clunkers. The Demon Deacons’ biggest problem is poor decisionmaking in the halfcourt offense which leads to a lot of turnovers. And guess what Cleveland State does best on defense? Generate turnovers. Their aggressive halfcourt style could cause some problems for Wake Forest. In the end, I think Wake’s size advantage, defense, and ability to get to the free throw line will likely carry the day. Much as I’d like to see an upset here, I think it’s going to tough for the Vikes to pull it off.
3-Kansas*
14-North Dakota State
North Dakota State is underseeded. Since December 1, the Bison have gone 24-4, and their four losses have been by a combined total of 11 points. Two of those losses were to NCAA teams, USC (four-point road loss) and Stephen A. Austin (triple overtime). It’s a senior-laden team that is no stranger to big wins. Three years ago, they won at Wisconsin and two years ago, at Marquette.
But can they beat Kansas? Maybe, but they’ll need to take a lot of threes (which is what Texas Tech did to beat Kansas by almost 20 last week). The Bisons shoot very well from behind the arc (40%) – a place that Kansas doesn’t defend that well – but they don’t typically rely on the three-pointer that much. That will have to change here, because they’re not going to get much going inside.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas is a solid offensive team across the board, with good post players (Aldrich, Morris), a point guard who can beat you inside and out (Collins), slashers (Taylor), and shooters (Reed, Morningstar). And they will beat you in transition to boot. The only thing the Jayhawks have to worry about is sloppiness with the ball, but they’ve held that in check of late. An upset is possible, but given the contrast between Kansas’ high-octane offense and NDSU’s throughly mediocre defense, it’s not very likely.
6-West Virginia*
11-Dayton
In the abstract, I think West Virginia is a much better team, but this is a good matchup for Dayton. The Flyers are a long, athletic team that attacks the basket and feasts on the offensive glass, but doesn’t shoot well. West Virginia has a very good defense, but it’s heavy on ball denial and choking off the 3-point line, which doesn’t respond to Dayton’s strengths. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers don’t rebound the defensive glass that well. The one area where West Virginia’s defensive style might produce dividends is in generating turnovers, as Dayton can be careless with the ball.
On the other end of the floor, West Virginia is an even stronger offensive rebounding team than Dayton, and the Flyers have had gotten dominated on their own glass by similar teams like Xavier. The Mountaineers don’t have the best offense in the country, but it’s been improving, and freshman Devin Ebanks has been blossoming.
Despite the less-than-ideal defensive matchup, I think West Virginia is too good a team, and Bob Huggins too good a coach, for them to lose this game.
7-Boston College10-USC*
Boston College might deserve the title of “most engimatic team” even more than Wake Forest – they beat UNC and Duke and lost to St. Louis and Harvard. They’ll get the Trojans, a mystery of their own, having swept through the Pac-10 tournament after a middling season, addled by an inability to win away from home.
USC mixes defenses a fair amount. I’m not sure that BC’s offense begs for one look or another. A zone would help contain BC’s dribble penetration and keep them shooting, which they don’t do well, but it would also have BC’s offensive glass-eating forwards licking their chops. Man defense would help with rebounding, but make it harder to contain the drive. At the other end, Demar Derozan is becoming the star he was (unfairly) expected to be all season long. I like USC’s chances of getting to the free throw line and getting second chance points against BC. They’ve had trouble with turnovers, but have generally cut down of late. I’m gonna go with Tim Floyd and the Trojans to continue their fine late-season run.
2-Michigan State*
15-Robert Morris
I’m not terribly impressed with Michigan State this year, but if they can’t get past Robert Morris, their problems are more serious than I thought.
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