Bizarro Symmetry

The largest victory margin in a championship game since (UNC rival) Duke beat (Michigan State rival) Michigan by 20 in 1992.

Man, I hate the ACC.

UPDATE: Since that '92 Duke-Michigan game, the ACC is 5-0 against the Big Ten in title games.

1992 - Duke over Michigan
1993 - UNC over Michigan
2002 - Maryland over Indiana
2005 - UNC over Illinois
2009 - UNC over Michigan State

Indiana's win over UNC in 1981 is the only other title game featuring the two conferences.

Get a brain!

Allow me to take advantage of the under-4 timeout to comment on the stupidity of Bill Self winning two Coach of the Year awards, first the AP and then CBS/Chevrolet's. (As if anything that an American car company puts its name on isn't discredited enough.) I'll say it again:

It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.

Self isn't even the Big 12 Coach of the Year, much less the national COY. Roy Williams benefitted from this myopia in 2006, the idiocy that rewards a coach not for actual coaching, but for how much talent he has after he wins a national championship. It's nuts and makes me wonder if the people who decide these things can focus on more than 3 or 4 schools for a two-year stretch at a time.

So Why are They Here?

Apologies for lack of coverage leading to the Final Four, but I was in turmoil over Calipari. My spirits have been conditionally lifted by the hiring of his ace recruiter and assistant Josh Pastner, who will inevitably leave for Arizona one day, but hey it's the best option now. 

Alright, so I'm just going to give a quick take on what I think got the title contenders to tonight's game, and I'll hazard a prediction, which may be the thing I'm worst at. 

Michigan State

Why are they here? Travis Walton and Kalin Lucas, no question. I have to give a standing ovation to the two defensive gems in a row that MSU turned in against Louisville and UConn. Louisville's 4-deep backcourt rotation could not provide their usual injection of energy and points against Walton and Lucas, along with MSU's own deep guard rotation. Walton's powers of defensive disruption also got to Terrence Williams.  Of course, shutting down a team like Louisville takes all 5 on the floor, and MSU worked together beautifully to deny Louisville passing and driving lanes. The defensive effort got Lousiville, not the most mentally solid team, stuck in a rut they couldn't escape. 

Walton and Lucas performed even better against UConn. A.J. Price, the best player of weekend 1, was 5-20 and could not provide any heroics or game-changing shots to get UConn out of the doldrums.  MSU did a great job of closing off driving lanes, as more than once a Husky guard penetrated only to have to retreat to the perimeter. All that, and that Durrell Summers dunk was SICK. 

North Carolina

It's hard to say anything original about Carolina at this point, especially since Dana O'Neil captured it so well here.  Simply put, Carolina has so many levels of offensive backup, it's extremely difficult to shut them all down.  It took superhuman efforts by Tyrese Rice of BC, Greivis Vasquez of Maryland, and Toney Douglas of FSU and a masterpiece by Wake Forest to beat them this year. 

All that said, it's become glaringly obvious that Ty Lawson dwarfs Tyler Hansbrough in importance to Carolina's chances. Yes, Hansbrough "hustles" and "works hard" but it would mean zilch without Lawson running the show and initiating those devastating Tar Heel runs where he, Ellington, and Green bury you.  Lawson couldn't save UNC against Kansas (shudder) last year, but he might have been able to stem that tide with his new shooting touch. 

Prediction

Where does that leave us? I think it's safe to say that many fans (myself included) want MSU to turn Hockeytown into Hoops Heaven tonight. But I can't get over the fact that as good as A.J. Price was in the first 2 rounds, Lawson has outshone him since. It's helped that Ellington has finally turned it on so he can follow his PG's lead when Lawson decides it's time to inflict death by a thousand daggers.  It will be a hell of a matchup to see Lawson go against a backcourt that is very capable of taking him off his game. I just don't see Carolina falling flat on so many fronts that they lose this game, unfortunately. MSU will slow them down, but Carolina will inevitably make a serious run. Carolina's defense has improved to the point that they will be able to beat back an MSU rally, if barely. Hansbrough, Davis, and Zeller can keep up with MSU x-factor Suton on the perimeter and Carolina's overall size will be able to frustrate him inside. 

I won't rule out the possibility that MSU will turn in a third straight masterful performance, and I definitely think they can beat Carolina, but I think Lawson's poise and skill carry the night. 

UNC 78 MSU 71

It's been a fun ride. Enjoy.

Sobering, not Surprising

Your March bloggers are now in somewhat similar situations. Shankar's heart belongs to Indiana, and mine to Memphis. Now that John Calipari is heading to Kentucky, we have a decimated roster, a frantic coaching search, and a distraught fan base wondering (more so than fans would at IU, which has tradition independent of Bobby Knight and is in the Big Ten) how much there is a Memphis without a Calipari. Memphis has tradition, but there's a deep insecurity in the city that was unfortunately assuaged by returning to college basketball glory, and in unprecedented fashion, with the pattern for perennial outsized success firmly laid. 

Calipari could have made his own Kentucky at Memphis, but he went to the one that was already there. That's really all I can say. 

A long night in Memphis and Lexington

Rumors swirling today about whether John Calipari will leave Memphis to take the head job at Kentucky. Despite all the "reports" (many of which are just reporting other reports), this does not appear to be a done deal. For what it's worth, the most recent chatter is that Memphis boosters are trying to put together a last-minute package that will keep Calipari in Memphis.

I have been saying all day long that until it is officially announced by Kentucky, I will continue to believe that this is an effort by Calipari to re-negotiate a huge deal in Memphis. Srinivas can speak to this better than I can, but if that's the case, it would not be the first time for Calipari.

I don't have much to add to this, but I will say that based on my casual surfing, I think that people are understimating the appeal of the Memphis job, both in the abstract and in Calipari's case, specifically. I don't think folks understand the importance of the Memphis basketball team to the city of Memphis, and the resources that the university is willing to commit to the program. After all, Calipari is already the second highest-paid coach in the country, and unlike the highest-paid coach (Billy Donovan), the magnitude of his salary isn't just a function of the largesse generated by a dominant football team.

In any event, it appears we'll find out tomorrow. In the meantime, there are a lot of folks in Kentucky and Memphis who aren't going to sleep well tonight.

Grab some popcorn

Billy Gillispie is out at UK. Kick back, put your feet up, and head over to Rupp Rafters to revel in the chaos.

UPDATE: A TV station in Orlando is reporting that Billy Donovan will be leaving Florida to take the UK job. That'll satisfy Kentucky's insane fan base, but I'm not sweating Billy D at all.

UPDATE 2: Donovan is pushing back on the rumors a bit, releasing a statement that says, "In response to the rumors circulating about my interest in other jobs, I wanted to address this as quickly as possible. I am committed to the University of Florida and look forward to continuing to build our program here." That strikes me as a non-denial denial.

Thursday Recap

Four games, four notes:

1. Boy, was Pitt lucky to win tonight. A disjointed, sloppy, and sluggish effort from the Panthers. From Dejuan Blair's poor finishing to Sam Young's comically bad shot selection to the entire team's defensive disorganization, it was not a pretty sight. Even Levance Fields' climactic three-pointer was one of those "no no no no no no yes!" plays. Jamie Dixon will be thanking his lucky stars that Xavier struggled to finish around the rim and shot surprisingly poorly tonight.
   


2. We said yesterday that the key factors in the Nova-Duke game would be the Wildcats' guards keeping their composure against Duke's ball pressure defense, and Duke's three-point shooting. Well Villanova turned it over on just 16% of its possessions (Duke typically forces turnovers on about 23% of possessions), and Duke shot an abominable 5-for-27 from beyond the arc. End result: 23-point Villanova blowout and much rejoicing throughout the land.


3. I didn't see the Memphis-Missouri game, but every replay that CBS showed me seemed to involve JT Tiller scoring on a layup off of a curl cut into the lane. Easy, peasy, japeneezy. So much for Memphis' vaunted defense, which allowed a remarkable 1.25 points per possession. Missouri will be looking to make its first Final Four on Saturday, but perhaps the more important battle for them will be finding a way to keep Mike Anderson in Columbia after the season is over. As for the inevitable speculation of Calipari to Kentucky, I can't see either party to that potential transaction being particularly interested in it, for a variety of reasons. Sorry, delusional UK fans, it looks it'll be Travis Ford for you. That's what you get for running one of the game's best coaches out of town.


4. I also missed the UConn-Purdue game, but as we suggested yesterday, without a hot shooting night, Purdue wasn't going to win this game. And 6-for-23 from 3 is absolutely frigid. The Boilers could never get the offense going this year, and despite returning much of their top talent next year, if they don't find a way to score, it's going to be a similar story.
   

UPDATE: Just to balance out the less than unbiased appraisal of Memphis' season below, I don't think they did anything that anyone shouldn't have expected in preseason. They may have been underrated by the polls at the time, but a so-so non-conference performance, a sweep through the anemic CUSA, and a sweet 16 exit are not terribly surprising results for this team. This year's award for overachieving goes to the Tigers who won tonight's game. It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.

Requiem for a Season

This wasn't supposed to be that team. It wasn't that veteran-heavy, superstar-infused team that was supposed to make it all the way last year, and almost did. It was a team with one great freshman, two proven veterans, and a lot of questions in October. This Memphis Tigers team didn't seem like it had a spark, a heart to push it to greatness. The early losses bore that out, and we settled in for one of those in-between seasons and looked ahead to the next recruiting class. Then, somehow, we moved Tyreke Evans to the point, and we caught fire. And despite myself, I started to see a great year coming from this obviously flawed team that managed to win, and defend, and even shoot. I definitely wouldn't have believed you if you told me in December that this team was a 2-seed. I saw that after all it would be a fitting ending for the careers of Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier.

And then tonight. The despair, the near helplessness of the end of the first half, and the early part of the second. The hangdog looks, that 1 step that we always seemed to be behind. But we burst through that illusion. We woke up, and we sprinted back toward an opponent who thought they'd left us behind.  We drove and drove and drove, and we trusted our superstar, and it all made us realize too late that if we'd only been ourselves a little bit earlier, Mizzou would have been but paper Tigers. But dammit, we went down swinging, a team that wasn't really made to be there, who achieved a kind of greatness in managing to come up just short. Thanks, Tigers, you left it all on the court for us in the end, and that's all we can ever ask. 

Quick Hitter: Blowing It

Well, those two games were lost, not won. Purdue could have been much closer and even led the game at various times, but they managed to blow possessions in a variety of ways. UConn was not the dominant team they were last weekend, as Jeff Adrien was not hitting the foul line jumper on the pick and pop and Chris Kramer had A.J. Price largely contained for much of the game.  Despite mostly being outplayed, Purdue was never behind by all that much. But Purdue could never get over the hump, and UConn finally flexed its superior talent in the last ten minutes and pulled away. Purdue definitely fumbled away a chance to push UConn to the last possession. 

Xavier has to be heartbroken as well. Their long drought at the beginning of the second half turned their 37-29 halftime lead into a seesaw game.  They could not push the advantage they had gained from a quiet first half by DeJuan Blair, and the odds caught up with them. Blair came alive in the second half, with rebounding and scoring, but Xavier could still control the game. Pitt was not really clicking offensively or defensively. Xavier had an incredible run of missed chippies throughout the game, and they had turnovers at the most inopportune times, sometimes after big stops.  They were deflated by the final minute, and when Levance Fields hit that gigantic 3 over a good contest, it seemed like Xavier was basically finished mentally, even though they were only down 1.  Not a fitting way for Xavier to end the season. 

Two Big East beasts escape average performances. On to the late games....

Mitch Barnhart, Our Lord and Savior

I know they take their basketball seriously in Kentucky, but I think the reporter who wrote this ESPN wire services story after UK's season ended in the NIT has missed the mark:

Asked about how he feels about all the judgment he's facing after posing a 40-27 record in two seasons at Kentucky, Gillispie said: "There's only one judgment I'll ever be concerned about, and I hope I pass that judgment. That's the only one I'll ever be concerned about, and I'm really proud that that's the only judgment that will ever have a real effect on me, and I hope I pass that one with flying colors."

Gillispie declined to answer when asked whose judgment he was referring to, saying it was obvious, apparently referring to Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart.

Uh, something tells me Gillispie is talking about something more eternal than his job.

Sweet Sixteen Preview: East and West

It's time to get back in the saddle.

After a few days off to catch a breath and reflect on the chalkfest that was the first two rounds of this year's Tournament, it's time to look forward to the orgy of high-level hoops that is coming our way over the next 96 hours. While I'm as disappointed about the lack of Cinderellas in this year's Sweet 16 (no, Arizona doesn't count), the advancement of the consensus top teams in the country should give us some terrific matchups this weekend. Let's preview what's on tap Thursday night.

Pittsburgh vs. Xavier - The big story off the court is Sean Miller leading Xavier against his his alma mater. (Trivia note: Miller was the guy who passed the ball to Jerome Lane for the backboard-breaking dunk that caused Bill Raftery to utter the now-famous words for the first time: "Send it in, Jerome!") And Miller may find himself back at Pitt if Arizona can manage to lure Jamie Dixon away.

Human interest aside, this should be an interesting matchup of two teams that play a similar defensive style. Both teams employ variants of the packline defense, which is pretty much what it sounds like - packing all your off-ball defenders within an imaginary line inside the arc. The goal is to prevent advancement of the ball towards the basket rather than to pressure the ball. As a result, both teams are much better at defending inside and rebounding the ball than they are at defending the three-point shot and generating turnovers. Xavier, though, is in a better position to take advantage of Pitt than vice versa, because the Musketeers are a better 3-point shooting team.

Pitt's offensive strength - inside - runs right into Xavier's packline. But it's not enough to say that Xavier generally defends well inside. Generalities often fall by the wayside when you're talking about exceptional cases, and Dejuan Blair is an exceptional case. Let's not forget his utter abuse of Hasheem Thabeet, who is a one-man packline defense all by himself. And when Blair isn't clicking, it seems that either Levance Fields and the cadre of Pitt's reserve guards, or Sam Young, are.

I suspect Pitt will come out on top, but the only sure thing is that this game is going to be a physical slugfest.

UConn vs. Purdue - Despite being an IU fan, I'm rooting for Purdue to represent the Big Ten well. But this is going to be a tough one.

Purdue is a great defensive team, and it wouldn't surprise me if they found a way to slow down UConn's multi-pronged offensive attack. But Purdue has struggled to score points all year, and going up against the Thabeet-led Huskies defense is not going to make things any easier. Down the stretch against Washington, the Boilers relied heavily on attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. That's just not going to work against UConn, which has one of the most efficient and least foul-prone interior defenses in the country. The shots will have to fall for the Boilers, and that means Hummel, Grant, and Moore will have to get hot. Jajuan Johnson has definitely improved this year, but it's asking a lot for him to get it done against Thabeet.

Let me also take this opportunity to say a word or two about AJ Price. He was, as Srinivas mentioned below, outstanding this past weekend. But frankly, he's been that way all year. Price has a certain quality that is ideal for a point guard, a quality that Levance Fields shares to an extent. That is, he manages to quietly run the offense and set up his teammates for large stretches of the game, and then suddenly, when the team most needs it, he will start lighting it up from 3, attacking the basket to great effect, and getting to the free throw line. He has great poise and just doesn't get rattled. For all the hype Thabeet gets, Price is undoubtedly the most valuable players on this team.

Duke vs. Villanova - This is probably the Sweet 16 game that I am most looking forward to.

I think Villanova has a real shot to knock off the March's most hated college basketball team. It starts with a very balanced offensive attack. Their win over UCLA featured six players in double digits. They have a lot of guards who can both attack the basket and finish or step back and hit the 3. And Dante Cunningham has emerged as well-balanced offensive threat in his own right, able to score inside through sheer grit, but also highly effective with a mid-range jumper.

The biggest question for this game is how they will handle Duke's ball pressure and denial defense. In theory, they've got the quick, athletic guards that you need to drive right past the pressure and to the hoop. But the Cats don't always play smart, and they can be turnover prone. They got hammered by West Virginia, who plays a similar defensive style, by 20-plus points. If they keep their calm and rely on their quickness, they will be able to exploit the driving lanes created by Duke's defense and finish or pass for open shots. If they can do that and take advantage of Duke's poor defensive rebounding, they will put up a lot of points.

The second biggest question for this game is how Duke will shoot the ball from deep. On average, Villanova's opponents take a remarkable 41% of their shots from beyond the arc. Don't believe me? If you have any doubt about Villanova's vulnerability to the long-range shot, go watch the first 30 minutes of their game against American. Duke has been so-so shooting the ball this year. If they can knock down the 3 and take advantage of Villanova's propensity to foul, they'll put up a lot of points themselves.

So that's it. Villanova's poise and intelligence against the pressure defense (and to a lesser extent, offensive rebounding) and Duke's three-point shooting (and to a lesser extent, ability to get to the free throw line). How those factors play out will tell the story.

Memphis vs. Missouri - I heard a rumor that they're scrapping the pre-game national anthem for a very special appearance from Quin Snyder, who will be "Eye of the Tiger" at center court in only the way he can. (If you know, you know. If you don't, find out. Trust me, you won't regret it.)

This will be an interesting stylistic matchup. The way Memphis has been playing defense, it'll be hard for Missouri to get much going out of the halfcourt offense. Which means they'll be more dependent on generating offense off of turnovers than usual. Which brings us to the most important factor in this game: Can Memphis handle the heat of Missouri's "40 minutes of hell" defense?

"40 minutes of hell," a term first coined by Mike Anderson's mentor, Nolan Richardson, when he implemented the full-court pressing style at Arkansas, is actually a bit overstaed for this Missouri team. They are more selective with the full-court pressure than, say, Clemson. But that's not to say that it's not a critical component of what they do. Their defensive success depends significantly on generating turnovers. The bottom line is if Memphis' guards - not just freshman Tyreke Evans, but senior Antonio Anderson and others - can handle it, they should get some easy buckets breaking the press and win comfortably. If they can't, and Missouri is able to generate turnovers, it could be a frustrating night for some folks around here.

Scandal in Storrs

The big news of the day is not related to what's going to happen on the court the next 4 days. It's about what's been happening on the recruiting trail and in the back rooms of UConn's men's basketball offices.

As part of their commendable effort to investigate the relationships between sports agents and college basketball programs, Dan Wetzel and Adrian Wojnarowski have conducted a thorough investigation of UConn's recruitment of Nate Miles and are reporting that it was fraught with violations of NCAA rules. Unless they are simply fabricating records, they seem to have nailed UConn for, at a minimum, excessive phone calls. The bigger issue they identify, though, is UConn's relationship with a former team manager named Josh Nochimson. Nochimson, it appears, is one of many agents-slash-business-managers-slash-parasites who are polluting the current youth and college basketball landscape. And it appears that the UConn coaching staff was in bed with him, which, because he was effectively a representative of the program and paying for this and that for Nate Miles, is not just an ethical problem, it's a major rules violation.

As an Indiana fan who has had to put up with the fallout of Kelvin Sampson's Phonegate, someone who generally finds Jim Calhoun dislikable, and someone who has heard rumors of UConn's running a dirty program, I hope the NCAA comes down hard on the Huskies.

Wetzel and Wojnarowski are doing good, important work, and I hope they keep up with it. One of the frustrating things about college basketball recruiting is that everyone knows who's cheating, but no one will say. It's about time the major college hoops media stopped trying to be every coach's friend so they could get access and started acting like journalists.

Here is the piece re: the unholy nexus between college hoops, AAU programs, and agents that W&W published a few weeks ago. Both this and the UConn article are worthy reads.

Dick Enberg and the Upside-Down Cheerleader

As is obvious from the title, what I'm about to relay deserves its own post. The UCLA-VCU game really packed in every possible element you want in an NCAA tournament game. An underdog with game versus a blue-blood basketball power. A dynamic star player in Eric Maynor. A fantastic fan section and band for VCU. Clutch threes, a comeback, and a thrilling ending. And also very, very good seats. 

But if there was one thing that will stay with Shankar and me from this weekend, it's this incident. At one point late in the game, with the excitement up throughout the building and the VCU fans in a lather, the VCU cheerleaders went over in front of their fan section to do their routine during a timeout. One part of this routine was one cheerleader walking on her hands. All the way down the court. And back. With no breaks! As she crossed halfcourt the first time, the crowd started to stand, and the whole arena was cheering her on. When she reached the far baseline, she turned around and started back without coming down from her handstand, and we all went completely nuts. As she crossed back over halfcourt, she was right in front of CBS's announcer team of Jay Bilas and Dick Enberg. Shankar suddenly told me to look at Dick Enberg, and what I saw changed my opinion of him forever. All day we had been making jokes about Enberg thinking he was calling the French Open, mistaking Hispanic players for Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario etc. He seems so proper in his way, and calling golf and tennis seems to be the best fit for him at his age. I mean, his signature phrase is "Oh my!" But we love the guy. 

Well right then, as the VCU cheerleader passed in front of his table a second time, the man had jumped up behind his table, with his headset on, and was whipping his right arm around in a frenzy again and again as if to push her on, and he continued until she finally came down from her handstand to a huge ovation. Dick Enberg, rock star. It was incredible. You have to love March Madness. 

Catching Our Breath

First, the big news of the day is that Marquette's Dominic James has been cleared to play against Missouri today! Rumors of his (college career's) death were exaggerated, apparently. I don't know how much this changes my assessment of Marquette's chances, but having him back has to be an incredible emotional lift. If he can hit a few shots and help break Mizzou's intense pressure, even if he's not 100% (which he can't be after this much time off), his skill and heart might just change the game completely. I'm glad, becuase as I said before, he deserved to finish his great career in a game, not on the bench. 

Alright, we're catching our breath after three days of non-stop basketball, and starting another. While 'Cuse and Arizona State get cranked up, I want to review what I gathered from watching the Philly pod in person, as well as a few from watching games on Friday. 

Basketball-related notes from Philly

• I think the big story out of Philly is UConn's dominance and A.J. Price's explosiveness. Over the last few weeks of the season and Championship week, I was of the opinion that this UConn team with Dyson healthy would be a huge favorite to win it all, no question. I thought Dyson would provide the kind of toughness and scoring versatility to take some of the load off A.J. Price and win games against Pitt, and against Syracuse in the Big East tournament. Now, I've seen UConn from near courtside twice, and I have to say they have put in the two most impressive performances of the tournament by any team.  A.J. Price has an incredible game. In person his ability to absolutely drive daggers into the other team is palpable. Any signs of life shown by Chattanooga and Texas A&M were quickly and devastatingly snuffed out by Price calmly draining a 3 in transition or off the dribble. Price was a stone-cold killer and undisputed leader all weekend, and I think he might just be playing the best ball in the tournament right now. 
• We watched Villanova-American from our (actual) seats high in a corner of the Wachovia Center, but luckily the arena provides pretty good vantage points from everywhere. We were very lucky to be able to watch American guards Derrick Mercer (5'9") and Garrison Carr (5'11") put on a thrilling show. Mercer showed that he can break ankles with the best of them, because he completely abused Scottie Reynolds multiple times with crossovers. Jay Wright had to give in and switch the much quicker Corey Fisher onto Mercer to contain him. And Garrison Carr...unreal.  Coming off curls, in the halfcourt, in transition, wide-open, closely contested--he drained incredible 3s throughout the game, tapering off as Villanova made its last push. It was pretty breathtaking to watch in person. Even the lifelong Villanova fans we were near were in awe. It must have been a treat to watch a guard tandem like that all season, and American fans gave them the vocal support and respect they earned in a true road environment. Probably the most impressive performance by a guard tandem in a losing effort in the tournament until last night, when Western Kentucky's Orlando Mendez-Valdez and A.J. Slaughter (great names) put on a similar show to push Gonzaga to the brink. 
• UCLA-VCU was the best game of Thursday, and we were lucky to be down in the 9th row behind the VCU bench. UCLA's sluggishness turned out to be a preview of their flat performance against Villanova. That said, Jrue Holiday is one hell of a player. He's calm, extremely smooth, has great handle, and can finish at the hoop in transition. He's a taller, stronger, version of Darren Collison, but I think it's clear he's not a point guard. If he can develop more confidence in his outside shot, he will be a force to reckon with.

Non-basketball related notes from Philly:

• On Thursday, while hanging in the main concourse after the A&M-BYU, we saw a UConn fan just knock over a pylon while walking by and not even pause a minute to think about picking it up. He seemed to be mad at the pylon for being there. It seemed...how do I say...typical. 
• The reason we were hanging in the lobby between the two Session 1 games was to snag lower level seats for UConn-Chattanooga. Here's a tip: old white guys in team color and logo button-downs probably have good seats. So we landed in the middle of a bunch of good ol' boy A&M boosters on the 9th row from the court. I felt like I was back in Memphis . There were some twenty-something guys to our right who engaged in some playful waving to the Chattanooga cheerleaders during an on-court routine. All in good fun. Their compatriot in front of us, however, was 20 years older....and ten times creepier. I named him the Pervert Captain. He was a little too enthusiastic about admiring one tall blonde, and as the crowd thinned out during the blowout, moved over to get a better look. In his new seat, he engaged in some seriously lecherous staring, and inquired as to what hotel the Chattanooga team was staying at. Disturbing. Moving on...
• On the subway to the sports complex on Saturday, I think I heard the most obliviously obnoxious caricature of a conversation ever. Two white guys talked about these things, loudly, in this order, and they weren't joking: how they were in a suite for the game, buying commercial property, the merits of the Buick SUV vs. the Lexus SUV, and (drumroll) their stocks! These people really exist. I felt like they were corporate villains from an 80s movie, and Shankar and I should try to humiliate them in some humorous and charming way while saving the old mom-and-pop diner. 
• When we were sitting in the lower level for the UConn-A&M game, the guys behind us basically made me hate life. Here are some of their astute observations about UConn: "Number 4 is good. And number 12, he's really good." I wanted to stand up and scream at them for wasting such prime sports-fan space on their ignorant asses. The world is unjust. 
• The UCLA dance team (as opposed to the regular cheerleaders) so transparently has no particular interest in the game, it's funny. I feel like their dance team is probably more of a competitive accomplishment among dancers, and maybe that's the way it is at a lot of schools. In any case, they are basically Laker Girls in training, from their costume changes to their routines to their lukewarm participation in leading cheers. Good times.

On Waking Sleeping Felines

(Shankar posting here as Srinivas is consumed by the Memphis-Maryland game at an arena bar.)

Posting live from the Wachovia Center, where the Villanova Wildcats just showed that the struggle against American clearly woke them up. The Cats simply devoured UCLA before a de facto home crowd. It was the kind of balanced and complete offensive display that makes Nova a real threat. It also showed how good they can be when they're hitting their shots. For UCLA's part, this game was kind of a raw deal, having to basically play a road game 3000 miles from home at 10 am pacific time, just 36 hours after a late night nailbiter against VCU.

In other news, the Memphis-Maryland game has tipped. The Maryland players decided to spend yesterday's off day making a series of idiotic statements about how mediocre Memphis would be if they had to play in the oh-so-impressive ACC (you know, the conference that has so far lost 4 games to teams seeded worse than them). This nonsense feeds right into John Calipari's Rodney Dangerfield schtick, which he routinely uses to motivate his players. So far, the Terps' moronic woofing (from, among others, local YMCA star Dave Neal) isn't paying dividends, as they're down 29-15. That' what happens when you kick a sleeping Tiger.

Just Tabulating

Big East: 6-1

ACC: 3-4

Big 12: 6-0

Big Ten: 4-3

Pac-10: 5-1

TGIF, Late Night Edition

A wild and crazy finish to the first round on Friday night, featuring two virtual buzzer beaters in overtime games and one phenomenal upset. Let's get right to it, in reverse order of finish:

• Ohio State v. Siena - Siena PG Ronald Moore redeemed himself after a mediocre game by hitting a huge three at the end of overtime to tie the contest at 65. And then he did it AGAIN to win the game in double overtime. Incredible. Insane. Mad. Until the overtime periods, this was the most poorly-played game we've seen so far. Moore and PG Hill spent most of the game in a competition to see who could undermine their team's offensive efforts the most. But what a finish.


• Florida State v. Wisconsin - It wasn't all bad news for the Big Ten as Wisconsin came back top top FSU with the help two incredible shots. First, a 30-foot three-pointer from Jason Bohannon with the shot clock expiring and a minute to play gave them a 2-pt lead. Toney Douglas would hit two free throws to take it to overtime. But down a point with the clock winding down in overtime, Trevon Hughes spun his way through the lane and finished with a ridiculous circus shot (and 1!) with 2 seconds left to win it. The Big Ten is now 2-0 against the ACC, which has just 3 teams left in the tournament. Maybe the sports media will finally take notice and . . . UNC and Duke play tomorrow, BABY! The ACC, yeah!!
  


• Wake Forest v. Cleveland State - The biggest upset of the first round, and it wasn't close at the start, the finish, or anywhere in between. The Vikings dominated, going up 9-0 early and leading by no less than 7 points the rest of the way. A terrific offensive performance, where in addition to getting buckets around the basket, they got some uncharacteristically good three-point shooting. And it was New Jersey's own Cedric Jackson who led the way with 19 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals. Most importantly, it means we get to post more pictures of Gary Waters.
  

Philly, Huggins, ETSU, and the SEC's Last Stand

Some random thoughts after almost two days of nonstop action:

• We were lucky to get a great night of basketball last night in Philly. A jam-packed arena full of Villanova fans, with the exception of a smaller, but even more vocal group of American fans (fans of the team, not the country ... maybe both). Then a barn-burner in the nightcap with Eric Maynor just missing the chance to write his name into NCAA history for the second time. Once again, we managed to make it down to the 9th row, this time behind the VCU bench. After the game, we huddled near the players' tunnel to slap hands with the Rams and applaud their efforts. Most of the players welcomed the attention, but Maynor was quite down, walking ruefully with his head down back to the locker room. We gave him a literal pat on the back, but I don't think it did much to lift him from his own personal agony of defeat.


• The best team to lose so far is West Virginia. Relatively speaking, Dayton was a bad stylistic matchup for them, but they're too good a team to lose this game. This one's on Bob Huggins. Dayton got whatever they wanted inside the paint and around the rim, but they don't shoot very well. Yet West Virginia never really switched out of its perimeter-pressure defense. This is why every coach, no matter how much he loves man-to-man defense, needs to teach his team how to play at least a basic zone.


• East Tennessee State did not deserve to be saddled with a 16 seed, and they showed it. Pitt didn't really play terribly; ETSU just played really well. It's a shame that they didn't get a shot at, say, a 3 seed. They could've found themselves in the second round.


• Much to my chagrin, LSU has kept the SEC alive. Now I'm faced with the unenviable dilemna of choosing between my desire to see the SEC put out of its misery and my desire to see UNC booted in the second round. I pick the latter. Let's go Tigers!

True to Form

The March has been blessed with a fine perch to watch today's games at Cavanaugh's in West Philly. I am, however, stuck next to a complete goober of a Tennessee fan decked in orange. This kid is making an ass of himself. Notably (and predictably) this Knoxville native has no idea what the hell he's talking about, whixh makes his "boom goes the dynamite"-quality shouted commentary even more humiliating. Why does the SEC even bother with basketball? Idiots.

Midday Madness Notes

First, two words: Roburt Sallie. Wow.

Second, the big news here in Philly (where we've managed to finagle ourselves into the 9th row) is that Jim Calhoun was taken to the hospital and is not here for the UConn game. Perhaps he got heat stroke from watching A&M's shooting in the first game. (Thanks, I'll be here all week.) Seriously, we hope the old guy is okay.

Live from Philadelphia

The March is in the Wachovia Center awaiting the official start of the greatest four days of the year. In a sure sign that the Madness has begun, they are pumping Aha's 80s hit, Take on Me, through the arena sound system as the BYU and A&M players warm up.

Armed with a blackberry, we'll be posting periodically throughout the day.

South Region: First Round Preview (and Picks)

1-UNC*
16-Radford

Sadly, Big Art Parakhouski’s run will be coming to an end.

8-LSU
9-Butler*

This blog is nothing if not committed to the proposition that the SEC sucks. But this is a tough game to call. Butler is a fine team, and what Brad Stevens has done with such a youthful squad is incredibly impressive. In a couple years, they could be a top 10-15 team. Right now, they’re a mildly overrated team that lost games to Loyola-Chicago and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. But they go up against an LSU team that’s lost 3 of 4 and has struggled to contain opposing post players. Matt Howard is not the greatest post presence in the country, but neither were AJ Ogilvy and Korvotney Barber, and they ate up LSU’s inside defense.

On the other hand, Butler’s defense is stronger inside the arc than outside, which is where LSU can do some damage, with 3-point gunners Bo Spencer and Marcus Thornton. And while Butler likes to take a lot of threes themselves, LSU’s defense tends to shut that down. And yet …

Earlier in this decade, I developed a simple philosophy in making NCAA picks: never overestimate the Pac-10. That should be our operative maxim for the SEC this week.

5-Illinois
12-Western Kentucky*

This is a possible upset pick, in part becaues of the Hilltoppers’ upset win last year, in part because of Illinois’ anemic offense, and in part because of Chester Frazier’s injury. My head is not completely convinced, given the way Illinois completely shuts down opposing offenses (especially the three-point shot that Western Kentucky loves to take), and given the Hilltoppers’ own so-so D. But my heart is taken by the prospect of Illinois missing Frazier’s leadership, Western Kentucky pounding the offensive glass, and the Illini’s scoring trouble keeping it close throughout. I’ll go with the conventional upset pick.

4-Gonzaga*
13-Akron

Gonzaga is loved by computer rankings, but not by my eyes. I don’t know that we’ll find out who’s right, as both of us predict they’ll get to the Sweet 16 before going down to UNC.

3-Syracuse*
14-Stephen Austin

After playing essentially five games in four days, Syracuse must be tired. But tired enough for the Lumberjacks to spring the upset? Not likely.

6-Arizona State*
11-Temple

This game might just be a three-point shooting contest. Both teams shoot a fair number of threes, and both play with fairly compact defenses. The two are similar in other ways, as well – taking care of the ball, rebounding better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Perhaps one of the stars – James Harden or Dionte Christmas – will take over, but barring that, it’s just gonna be who’s feeling it from deep. Temple seems a bit too dependent on just Christmas, so I’ll go with ASU, who has a few different guys who can get hot.

7-Clemson
10-Michigan*

Tough game to call. Michigan shoots a lot of 3s, but they don’t make a high percentage of them. When in doubt, they chuck. Ironically, Clemson’s full-court pressure defense may allow them to get easy baskets and cleaner looks from outside. But the question is whether their ballhandling is good enough to withstand the pressure without turning it over. There’s no one in the Big Ten who plays this style, so it’s hard to know.

For Clemson’s part, they’ve struggled a bit since the nearly 30-point pasting of Duke midway through the conference season. Perhaps their up-tempo pace is causing fatigue late in the season. Against Michigan, they might find their groove, as Michigan is not a great defensive team, particularly inside. Clemson should have a big advantage on the offensive boards. I don’t have the utmost confidence in their ability to run their halfcourt offense, and this question, along with Michigan’s ability to handle the pressure, should decide the game. I’ll take Michigan in this pick ‘em.

2-Oklahoma*
15-Morgan State

It could happen. After a period of irrational speculation, Oklahoma’s stock has crashed, even with Blake Griffin’s return.

East Region: First Round Preview (and Picks)

Lots of potential upsets in this quarter of the bracket.

1-Pittsburgh*
16-East Tennessee State

East Tennessee State was underseeded, and they’re not happy about it. The good news for Pitt is that after their early exit in the Big East tournament, I suspect they’ll be focused like a laser. As long as the Panthers don’t take their opposition lightly, they should be fine.

8-Oklahoma State*
9-Tennessee

The SEC sucks. Seriously, Tennessee is not a very good team, and Oklahoma State is really coming along late in the season. I feel good about the Cowboys here.

5-Florida State
12-Wisconsin*

Statistically, this is the most even of the 5-12 matchups. In fact, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin ahead of Florida State. On top of that, you’ve got Bo Ryan matching coaching wits with Leonard Hamilton, which isn’t much of a contest. FSU’s first tourney trip in years has the feel of a quick exit.

Although FSU has played some good defense, I think Wisconsin will get its share of points. They take and make a fair number of threes, and that’s what FSU’s defense tends to allow. The Seminoles have a strong interior D, but Wisconsin’s swing offense will tend to take FSU’s bigs away from the basket.

On the other end of the floor, despite undergoing a revolution almost overnight midway through the Big Ten season, Wisconsin’s defense still seems vulnerable to quick, athletic guards. Enter Toney Douglas, the one-man-quick-athletic-guard wrecking crew. Can Travon Hughes handle the assignment? It’s a tough call. Florida State may make me look like a fool, but I’m gonna say yes and go with the Badgers.

4-Xavier
13-Portland State*

There’s something happening here. What it is, ain’t exactly clear.

Actually it’s quite clear. Portland State has a star senior point guard and a three-point oriented offense that is perfect to attack Xavier’s pack-line defense. On the other end of the ball, Portland State has a mediocre defense, but what they do best is defend the three-point line (which is where Xavier thrives) generate turnovers (which is Xavier’s big offensive weakness), and avoid fouls (getting to the foul line is what Xavier does best). Xavier will probably beat them about on the boards, but there are lots of ingredients here for an upset.

Oh, and the game is in Boise. What the hell, let’s take a flyer on these Vikings.

3-Villanova*
14-American

This is turning into my upset bracket, and American has a non-trivial chance of joining the club. They shoot the three well, frequently a key ingredient in low seed upsets, especially so against team like Villanova that doesn’t shut down the area beyond the arc. They can also defend a bit inside. But all in all, it’s hard to see the Patriot League champs winning on what is essentially Nova’s home court. The Wildcats have a lot of weapons and a very balanced offense, and they get after it defensively as well. I really like this Villanova for reasons that – shockingly enough – I can’t entirely explain. In any event, playing at home should keep them focused enough to get past American.

6-UCLA*
11-VCU

VCU is a real upset threat, but I’m not sure this is the ideal matchup. UCLA is probably underseeded, given how efficient their offense is (more than a point per possession in every game this year but two). It’s an offense that’s more than capable of exploiting VCU’s so-so 3-point defense and rebounding. That said, UCLA’s defense has been quite underwhelming this year, and VCU could return the favor. So perhaps we’re looking at a high-scoring shootout. I’m going to stick with the Bruins, though an upset wouldn’t surprise anyone, me included.

7-Texas*
10-Minnesota

I expect a battle under the basket between these two very similar squads. Offensively and defensively, both teams are stronger in the paint than they are outside. Both are stronger rebounding the offensive glass than their own. And both teams have struggled to win away from home. I love Tubby Smith and think he’s done a phenomenal job this year. But the Longhorns have more talent and experience, and that may resolve this stylistic wash. AJ Abrams, in particular, is the kind of difference-maker that Minnesota lacks.

2-Duke*
15-Binghamton

We all like to make fun of Duke, but don’t underestimate these guys They work hard out there, and you have to respect that.

West Region: First Round Previews (and Picks)

1-Uconn*
16-Chattanooga

I guess you never know with UConn, but don’t count on it.

8-BYU*
9-Texas A&M

Strangely enough, this is a rematch of an 8-9 game from last year. I watched the last BYU-Utah game and was pretty impressed with BYU’s pure version of the motion offense, which takes care of the ball and works for good shots. They’ve got the personnel for it, a bunch of guys of average height who are basically interchangeable. (6-7 swingman Lee Cummard is a poor man’s Terrence Williams, a real stat sheet stuffer. He can shoot from anywhere, grab boards, hand out assists, and block shots.) BYU is a fairly stout defensive team as well.

The last time A&M played a motion offense like this was this past weekend – when they lost to Texas Tech. In fact, every time they played the Red Raiders this year, they gave up more than a point per possession. That’s not to say the Aggies are going to roll over here. They beat the Cougars last year, and they’ve finished strong this season, getting better as the season goes on. They are great at getting to the free throw line, and with their size advantage, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them there quite a bit on Thursday.

The March will have the privilege of watching this game in person. It should be a fun one, but at the end of the day, I expect a BYU win.

5-Purdue*
12-Northern Iowa

Purdue can defend with the best of them, and I expect the Boilers to shut down Northern Iowa on that end of the court. The question is whether Purdue can score. UNI’s defense isn’t great, but they tend to pack it in and force you to beat them from outside. With Robbie Hummel healthy and in good form, the Boilers probably have enough to do get it done offensively, but they never have a lot of margin for error on that end.

4-Washington*
13-Mississippi State

The likeliest 4-13 upset. Washington attacks the basket, gets to the free throw line, pounds the offensive glass, and generally gets its points inside. Mississippi State, however, has the best shot-blocker in the country in Jarvis Varnado (yes, better than Hasheem Thabeet) patrolling the paint. That said, MSU doesn’t rebound well, and I’d expect the Huskies’ offense to survive on offensive boards. Expect a lot of putbacks for Jon Brockman. At the other end, Mississippi State is a very three-point oriented team. Washington has a mediocre three-point percentage defense, but they also don’t allow a lot of three-point attempts, period.

Throw in the intangibles – MSU coming off of four games in four days, Washington playing so close to home – and the Huskies have the edge. But an upset here wouldn’t surprise me.

3-Missouri*
14-Cornell

It’s pronounced Colonel. It’s the highest rank in the military.

I don’t give Andy Bernard’s boys much of a chance here. Missouri’s “40 minutes of hell” defense (which is actually more selective than that) is going to give Cornell problems, forcing turnovers, exposing an athleticism deficit, and taking them away from the three-point shot.

6-Marquette
11-Utah State*

This game has serious upset potential. Utah State sports one of the most efficient offenses in the country, with two capable post players complemented by a trio of shooters. I don’t know how Marquette plans to defend them, but what they probably should do is apply a lot of ball pressure to choke off the three-point shot and harass the entry pass, and front the post (as they’ve done against other teams). Offensively, Marquette does most of its damage inside the arc and from the free throw line. This isn’t a bad matchup for the Aggies, who tend to pack it in and don’t foul, though I’m not sure if they can keep up with the athleticism of Jerel McNeal and Lazar Hayward. This game could turn on Marquette’s three-point shooting, which is sometimes prolific, sometimes cold.

The intangibles here favor an upset. First of all, the game is being played in Boise, Idaho, which is likely to create a virtual home court atmosphere. Yes, tip time is 10:30 am Utah time, but it’s 11:30 am Wisconsin time, which isn’t much better. And Marquette will be forced to roll out and ball after a much longer trip. Second, while Marquette hasn’t been terrible since Dominic James went down to a foot injury, losing four out of five (to tough competition) has to take a mental toll.

In 2005, I thought the Aggies would upset Arizona in the first round, in part because of the location of the game, but they didn’t. So I ought to learn my lesson, right? Nah.

7-California
10-Maryland*

Cal has the best 3-point percentage of any team in the country. And yet, they take very few threes, ranking in the bottom 10% in all of Division I. Are they foolishly not playing to their strengths, or is the high percentage a function of good shot selection? Whatever the case, the overall product is ranked number 11 in the country in offensive efficiency. It’s hard to argue with that. It’s a different story defensively where the Bears struggle to force missed shots or turnovers.

As for Maryland, I have no idea how Gary Williams does it. This team is basically Greivis Vasquez and a collection of guys from the local YMCA. Vasquez is a matchup problem for Cal’s guards, and since moving to the point, has made Maryland a much stronger offensive team.

I’ve had a harder time making up my mind on this game than on any other first round matchup that I’ve previewed so far. I suspect it’ll come down to a simple question – will Cal make shots? I’ll guess no and further guess that Gary Williams will pull another coaching rabbit out of a hat, and that Greivis Vasquez will put on a show.

2-Memphis*
15-Cal State Northridge

The best defense in the country isn’t about to get rolled by Cal State Northridge.

Midwest Region: First Round Preview (and Picks)

Here are my picks for the first round games in the Midwest Region. (As I'm not interested in previewing hypothetical, nonexistent matchups, I won't be providing this level of detail for later round matchups until they're actually set. However, I may post a full bracket prediction with a more summary analysis for each region.)

1-Louisville*
16-Alabama State / Morehead State

I pick Louisville.

8-Ohio State*
9-Siena

Siena’s probably a popular pick after they dismantled Vanderbilt in the first round last year. But I’m not sure how this matchup shakes out for the Saints They like to get their points by attacking the lane, and that’s precisely where OSU’s otherwise-mediocre defense is at its best, with their zone tightening up and BJ Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale swatting shots. OSU is vulnerable to the three-pointer, but that’s not Siena’s game – they neither take a lot of threes nor make a high percentage. The Saints will have to push the transition game to try to get some easy buckets. On the other end, Siena may be able to exploit OSU’s sloppiness with the ball and lack of a solid point guard. But the Saints aren’t a great defensive team in general, and OSU scores a good percentage both inside the arc and out.

On the intangibles front, Siena is, ironically, the more experienced Tournament team. But the Buckeyes will have a nice home-court advantage playing in southwest Ohio. A close call, but I go with OSU.

5-Utah*
12-Arizona

The first thing that leaps out to me about this game is Utah’s 3-point offense and Arizona’s 3-point defense. The Utes shoot a lot of threes, and they make a good percentage lot of threes. Arizona’s defense allows teams to shoot a lot of 3s, and they give up a good percentage on those threes. In fact, 36.3 percent of the point scored against Arizona come from behind the arc – that’s the fifth-highest percentage in the country. This is going to be a problem for the Wildcats, especially in what will likely be a relatively low possession game.

Both teams have been much stronger at home than on the road, so it’ll be interesting to see how they perform a couple thousand miles from home in Miami. This is a popular pick for a 12-5 upset, but I’ll go with Utah.

4-Wake*
13-Cleveland State

Wake Forest is an enigmatic team, sometimes able to beat anyone, sometimes putting up real clunkers. The Demon Deacons’ biggest problem is poor decisionmaking in the halfcourt offense which leads to a lot of turnovers. And guess what Cleveland State does best on defense? Generate turnovers. Their aggressive halfcourt style could cause some problems for Wake Forest. In the end, I think Wake’s size advantage, defense, and ability to get to the free throw line will likely carry the day. Much as I’d like to see an upset here, I think it’s going to tough for the Vikes to pull it off.

3-Kansas*
14-North Dakota State

North Dakota State is underseeded. Since December 1, the Bison have gone 24-4, and their four losses have been by a combined total of 11 points. Two of those losses were to NCAA teams, USC (four-point road loss) and Stephen A. Austin (triple overtime). It’s a senior-laden team that is no stranger to big wins. Three years ago, they won at Wisconsin and two years ago, at Marquette.

But can they beat Kansas? Maybe, but they’ll need to take a lot of threes (which is what Texas Tech did to beat Kansas by almost 20 last week). The Bisons shoot very well from behind the arc (40%) – a place that Kansas doesn’t defend that well – but they don’t typically rely on the three-pointer that much. That will have to change here, because they’re not going to get much going inside.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas is a solid offensive team across the board, with good post players (Aldrich, Morris), a point guard who can beat you inside and out (Collins), slashers (Taylor), and shooters (Reed, Morningstar). And they will beat you in transition to boot. The only thing the Jayhawks have to worry about is sloppiness with the ball, but they’ve held that in check of late. An upset is possible, but given the contrast between Kansas’ high-octane offense and NDSU’s throughly mediocre defense, it’s not very likely.

6-West Virginia*
11-Dayton

In the abstract, I think West Virginia is a much better team, but this is a good matchup for Dayton. The Flyers are a long, athletic team that attacks the basket and feasts on the offensive glass, but doesn’t shoot well. West Virginia has a very good defense, but it’s heavy on ball denial and choking off the 3-point line, which doesn’t respond to Dayton’s strengths. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers don’t rebound the defensive glass that well. The one area where West Virginia’s defensive style might produce dividends is in generating turnovers, as Dayton can be careless with the ball.

On the other end of the floor, West Virginia is an even stronger offensive rebounding team than Dayton, and the Flyers have had gotten dominated on their own glass by similar teams like Xavier. The Mountaineers don’t have the best offense in the country, but it’s been improving, and freshman Devin Ebanks has been blossoming.

Despite the less-than-ideal defensive matchup, I think West Virginia is too good a team, and Bob Huggins too good a coach, for them to lose this game.

7-Boston College
10-USC*

Boston College might deserve the title of “most engimatic team” even more than Wake Forest – they beat UNC and Duke and lost to St. Louis and Harvard. They’ll get the Trojans, a mystery of their own, having swept through the Pac-10 tournament after a middling season, addled by an inability to win away from home.

USC mixes defenses a fair amount. I’m not sure that BC’s offense begs for one look or another. A zone would help contain BC’s dribble penetration and keep them shooting, which they don’t do well, but it would also have BC’s offensive glass-eating forwards licking their chops. Man defense would help with rebounding, but make it harder to contain the drive. At the other end, Demar Derozan is becoming the star he was (unfairly) expected to be all season long. I like USC’s chances of getting to the free throw line and getting second chance points against BC. They’ve had trouble with turnovers, but have generally cut down of late. I’m gonna go with Tim Floyd and the Trojans to continue their fine late-season run.

2-Michigan State*
15-Robert Morris

I’m not terribly impressed with Michigan State this year, but if they can’t get past Robert Morris, their problems are more serious than I thought.

First (and Second) Round Tipoff Times (and Announce Crews)

UPDATE: Thanks to the fine folks at Awful Announcing, we can now flesh out the information below with second round game times and announce crews. Good news for the March: Gus Johnson will be announcing the Friday/Sunday games, so no conflict with our Philly plans. Rise and Fire! Lead announce team, Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg, are, of course, sent to Greensboro to cover those super special teams without which college basketball would cease to exist, Duke and UNC.

ESPN is listing tip times for the first round games on Thursday and Friday, though they're not yet on the CBS Sports website. I've reordered them below by game time. We'll post coverage maps and announce crews as soon as we get that information.

Thursday, 3/19

12:20 PM ET - (9) Butler vs. (8) LSU (Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg)
12:25 PM ET - (15) Cal State Northridge vs. (2) Memphis (Tim Brando, Mike Gminski)
12:30 PM ET - (9) Texas A&M vs. (8) Brigham Young (Carter Blackburn, Jay Bilas)
2:30 PM ET - (12) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Purdue (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner)
2:50 PM ET - (16) Radford vs. (1) North Carolina (Nantz, Kellogg)
2:55 PM ET - (10) Maryland vs. (7) California (Brando, Gminski)
3:00 PM ET - (16) Chattanooga vs. (1) Connecticut (Blackburn, Bilas)
5:00 PM ET - (13) Mississippi State vs. (4) Washington (Harlan, Bonner)
7:10 PM ET - (10) Michigan vs. (7) Clemson (Brando, Gminski)
7:10 PM ET - (10) Minnesota vs. (7) Texas (Nantz, Kellogg)
7:20 PM ET - (14) American University vs. (3) Villanova (Dick Enberg, Bilas)
7:25 PM ET - (13) Akron vs. (4) Gonzaga (Harlan, Bonner)
9:40 PM ET - (15) Binghamton vs. (2) Duke (Nantz, Kellogg)
9:40 PM ET - (15) Morgan State vs. (2) Oklahoma (Brando, Gminski)
9:50 PM ET - (11) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (6) UCLA (Enberg, Bilas)
9:55 PM ET - (12) Western Kentucky vs. (5) Illinois (Harlan, Bonner)

Friday, 3/20

12:15 PM ET - (14) Stephen F. Austin vs. (3) Syracuse (Ian Eagle, Jim Spanarkel)
12:25 PM ET - (9) Tennessee vs. (8) Oklahoma State (Verne Lundquist, Bill Raftery)
12:30 PM ET - (14) North Dakota State vs. (3) Kansas (Gus Johnson, Len Elmore)
12:30 PM ET - (11) Utah State vs. (6) Marquette (Craig Bolerjack, Bob Wenzel)
2:45 PM ET - (11) Temple vs. (6) Arizona State (Eagle, Spanarkel)
2:55 PM ET - (16) East Tennessee State vs. (1) Pittsburgh (Lundquist, Raftery)
3:00 PM ET - (11) Dayton vs. (6) West Virginia (Johnson, Elmore)
3:00 PM ET - (14) Cornell vs. (3) Missouri (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
7:10 PM ET - (16) TBA vs. (1) Louisville (Lundquist, Raftery)
7:10 PM ET - (12) Arizona vs. (5) Utah (Eagle, Spanarkel)
7:20 PM ET - (10) USC vs. (7) Boston College (Johnson, Elmore)
7:25 PM ET - (13) Portland State vs. (4) Xavier (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
9:40 PM ET - (9) Siena vs. (8) Ohio State (Lundquist, Raftery)
9:40 PM ET - (13) Cleveland State vs. (4) Wake Forest (Eagle, Spanarkel)
9:50 PM ET - (15) Robert Morris vs. (2) Michigan State (Johnson, Elmore)
9:55 PM ET - (12) Wisconsin vs. (5) Florida State (Bolerjack, Wenzel)

Saturday, 3/21

1:05 PM ET - Villanova/American vs. UCLA/VCU (Enberg, Bilas)
3:20 PM ET - Memphis/Cal St. Northridge vs. California/Maryland (Brando, Gminski)
3:35 PM ET - Connecticut/Chattanooga vs. BYU/Texas A&M (Enberg, Bilas)
5:40 PM ET - Purdue/N. Iowa vs. Washington/Mississippi State (Harlan, Bonner)
5:45 PM ET - North Carolina/Radford vs. LSU/Butler (Nantz, Kellogg)
5:50 PM ET - Oklahoma/Morgan State vs. Clemson/Michigan (Brando, Gminski)
8:00 PM ET - Gonzaga/Akron vs. Illinois/Western Kentucky (Harlan, Bonner)
8:05 PM ET - Duke/Binghamton vs. Texas/Minnesota (Nantz, Kellogg)

Sunday, 3/22

12:10 PM ET-Syracuse/Stephen F. Austin vs. Arizona State/Temple (Eagle, Spanarkel)
2:20 PM ET - Florida State/Wisconsin vs. Xavier/Portland State (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
2:30 PM ET - Kansas/N. Dakota State vs. West Virginia/Dayton (Johnson, Elmore)
2:40 PM ET - Wake Forest/Cleveland State vs. Utah/Arizona (Eagle, Spanarkel)
2:50 PM ET - Oklahoma State/Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh/E. Tennessee State (Lundquist, Raftery)
4:50 PM ET - Missouri/Cornell vs. Marquette/Utah State (Bolerjack, Wenzel)
5:00 PM ET - Michigan State/Robert Morris vs. Boston College/USC (Johnson, Elmore)
5:10 PM ET - Ohio State/Siena vs. Louisville/Alabama State or Morehead State (Lundquist, Raftery)

The Reckoning for My S-Curve Adventures

So here's the comparison of my Top 12 seeds to the committee's. Obviously I got it a little jumbled, but overall I think I did pretty well. Got the composition of the 1 and 2 lines right, correctly picking between UConn and Memphis for the last number 1.  Correctly moved Kansas down to the 3 line.  Shankar pointed out that OU and KU couldn't be 8-9 overall as I had them because they would then be in the same half-bracket (which would violate the rule against having 2 teams from the same conference in the same half-bracket), so maybe my 2-line was more accurate in terms ranking than the final seeding shows. Only thing I whiffed completely on was Syracuse rocketing into a 3 seed, and not even the last 3 seed at that. Wake Forest got a little jobbed, but really it's a very minor quibble. I thought Duke had locked itself right behind Memphis with an ACC tourney title, and I also thought Oklahoma had displayed some troubling signs even after Blake Griffin came back. 

The biggest surprise obviously is how much credit Louisville got for its Big East title run. I thought the losses that had pushed them down in the polls early in the season would linger more for the committee. That said, I have been saying that Louisville is playing the best ball in the country right now.  Anyway, judge me below. 

Overall Seed Actual Seed My Pick 1 Seeds 1 Louisville North Carolina   2 Pitt Louisville   3 North Carolina Pitt   4 UConn UConn         2 Seeds 5 Memphis Memphis   6 Oklahoma Duke   7 Duke Michigan State   8 Michigan State Oklahoma         3 Seeds 9 Kansas Kansas   10 Villanova Missouri   11 Syracuse Villanova   12 Missouri Wake Forest         4 Seeds 13 Washington     14 Gonzaga     15 Xavier     16 Wake Forest

The State of the Bubble Nation: Post-Mortem

We correctly called 64 of the 65 teams. While we fully expected a photo finish for the last bid, we were surprised that Arizona inched in front, given their atrocious road record and 1-5 finish (two considerations - where and when - that the selection committee supposedly takes into account). Even if you are biased in favor of power conference teams with lots of top 50 wins, Penn State is a better argument. Creighton and St. Mary's also have reason to be upset.

As you'll know from our last Bubble Nation post, we were not surprised to see Wisconsin squeak in as a 12 seed. The lock status accorded them by a lot of commentators was somewhat perplexing.

In any event, the field of 65 is set. The March will be in Philadelphia for first and second round action at the Wachovia Center featuring UConn, BYU, Texas A&M, Chattanooga, Villanova, American, UCLA, and VCU. In the meantime, we will bring you plenty of bracket analysis and commentary. Stay with us for the ride.

Selection Show LIVEBLOGGING

With apologies to the NFL draft and the NBA lottery, the most important single hour of non-competition sports programming is upon us. We'll be liveblogging it right here. Join us as we celebrate Billy Packer's absence and ponder the days until Jim Nantz' similarly glorious demise.

The State of the Bubble Nation: And DOWN the Stretch They Come!

I'm going to simplify this edition of the Bubble Nation by focusing more narrowly on the bids and teams that I think are still genuinely in play. The big news from this weekend was the championship victories for USC, Temple, and Mississippi State, all of whom will now crash the Dance at the expense of two Bubble teams.

Let's start with the math.

At-Large Locks

The following teams are locks for at-large bids. These lists do not include teams that have already captured automatic bids via conference championships.

• ACC (3): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
• Big East (6): Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
• Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota
• Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
• SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
• Mountain West (1): BYU
• Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• Horizon (1): Butler

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids and 31 locks listed above. Accordingly, there are 3 at-large bids available. I've identified 7 bubble teams left, listed below.

To evaluate these teams, I’m going to split them into two groups – power conference teams and mid-major teams – and first compare them to the other teams in their group. Using the official “team sheet” that the selection committee uses, I’ve included more top-line data this time to give as granular a snapshot of these teams as I realistically can.

Power Conference Teams (4):

• Maryland (RPI 55, SOS 21, 4-8 vs. top 50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 12-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) -I think that of all these 7 teams, Maryland is the likeliest to win a bid. The biggest reason is the quality of their top 50 wins - 2 against top 5 teams (Michigan State, North Carolina) and 1 against a top 20 team (Wake Forest). None of the other teams on this list compare in terms of the quality of their best wins. Lean IN.



• Wisconsin (RPI 46, SOS 17, 4-10 vs. top 50, 5-1 vs. 51-100, 9-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The loss to Ohio State Friday and the developments elsewhere have Wisconsin in a very precarious position. Their RPI has plummeted this week. But in addition to the four top 50 wins, they beat Penn State twice, and they have 5 top 51-100 wins, compared to PSU’s 1. They also had an overall much stronger schedule than Penn State. It’ll be hard for the Nittany Lions to leapfrong Wisconsin. That said, I would not be shocked if both teams were left out. Even Odds.



• Penn State (RPI 71, SOS 92, 6-9 vs. top 50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) – On the plus side is the 6 top 50 wins, including two on the ROAD at Michigan State and Illinois. On the minus side is the very low RPI, the so-so schedule, and the two losses to Wisconsin. The tightness of the Bubble might keep them out. Even Odds.



• Arizona (RPI 59, SOS 31, 6-10 vs. top 50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 11-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) – The more I look at Arizona, the more convinced I am that they will be on the outside looking in. The committee has frequently said they look at your home/road split and how you performed towards the end of the season. Arizona has not defeated a single top 100 RPI team on the road. On top of that, they finished the regular season on a 1-4 skid (because of their inability to win on the road). Despite the big non-conference wins against Kansas and Gonzaga, I think the Wildcats' streak of consecutive Tournament appearances (like the other Wildcats') will be coming to an end. Lean OUT.

Mid-Major Teams (3):

• Creighton (RPI 41, SOS 111, 2-2 vs. top 50, 8-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 11-1 last 12) – Creighton’s biggest selling point is the very impressive 11-1 mark in the last 12 games. The second biggest selling point is that in addition to the 2 top 50 wins (which both St. Mary’s and SDSU share), they have a whopping 8 wins against teams ranked 51-100. For these reasons and others that I get into more below, I’m ranking Creighton slightly higher than St. Mary’s and SDSU. Even Odds.



• St. Mary's (RPI 43, SOS 141, 2-3 vs. top 50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 20-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) – There is a lot of pressure on the Committee to account for Patty Mills’ injury in evaluating St. Mary’s. The problem is that even if you do, how much stronger is their resume compared to the other teams on this list? They lost 3 games with Mills out – 2 to Gonzaga, 1 to Portland. With Mills in his current condition (which is how they’ll be evaluated), they lost to Gonzaga by 20-plus points. So you can’t say that they would’ve won those 2 games against Gonzaga. Of course, it’s fair to say they would’ve defeated Portland. But that adjusts their resume by exactly one win against a 100+ RPI team. Is that enough? How do their top 50 wins against SDSU and Utah State compare to Creighton’s over Dayton and Illinois State? Pretty much a wash. But Creighton has 8 more solid wins against top 50-100 teams, while St. Mary’s has just one. On the other hand, Creighton has two bad losses, while St. Mary’s would have zero. This is one of the most confounding Bubble cases you will ever see. But at the end of the day, even if you account for Mills’ injury, it’s not clear that St. Mary’s has a stronger argument than Creighton. Even Odds.



• San Diego State (RPI 35, SOS 47, 2-6 vs. top 50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - The Aztecs' MWC tournament wins against UNLV and BYU have rejuvenated their at-large chances. The problem is what happens when the committee gets down to comparing the last few teams. First, the Aztecs have lost to two of the other teams on this list (St. Mary's and Arizona). Second, of the other teams on this list, they are probably most comparable to Creighton (St. Mary’s is also a mid-major, but has very unusual circumstances). Both teams have top 2 top 50 wins, but Creighton has a better percentage record against the top 50, double the number of wins against teams 51-100, and a very impressive 11-1 run down the stretch. At the end of the day, SDSU just doesn’t have something that allows them to stand out from this pack (like Creighton’s last 12 record, St. Mary’s’ injury situation, etc.). Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

I think Maryland is certainly in, given the number and quality of their best wins, two of which came in their last 12 games. And I think Arizona is definitely out because of the home/road record and the 1-5 finish. I’m also ruling out San Diego State because of the comparative problems outlined above.

So that leaves four teams competing for two spots: Wisconsin, Penn State, Creighton, and St. Mary’s. Let's try to eliminate teams from this group by focusing on the head-to-head direct comparisons.

Wisconsin's high SOS, head-to-head wins over Penn State, number of top 50 wins, record against teams 51-100 … it all helps them in a direct comparison against these other three teams. Let’s give them the second bid.

As I explained above, because of the late season ‘what team are you now’ focus, I think Creighton’s resume is (barely) better than St. Mary’s’. So I see this coming down to Penn State and Creighton. It’s very, very difficult to compare these two teams because they come from different kinds of conferences and have different scheduling situations. I’m gonna go with Creighton. At first glance, no team outside the top 70 RPI has won an at-large bid in the last 10 years. Creighton’s overall top 100 record compares favorably with Penn State’s. And the Bluejays’ 11-1 mark down the stretch sticks out.

Having said that, it would not surprise me to see St. Mary’s leapfrog Penn State or Creighton to grab the final slot. The Mills situation is so unusual, and the pressure not to punish the Gaels so large, that I could see the Committee choosing them. Any of these three teams getting in would not surprise me.

But my best guess at the 34 at-large bids we’ll see in about an hour is as follows:

• ACC (6): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland
• Big East (6): Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
• Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue/Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
• Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
• SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
• Mountain West (1): BYU
• Atlantic-10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
• Horizon (1): Butler
• Missouri Valley (1): Creighton

Penn State, St. Mary's, San Diego State, and Arizona the first four out.